Spring training is almost here, but the outlook for the 2026 Chicago White Sox is already taking shape - and not in the most encouraging way. Between prospect rankings, Vegas win totals, and FanGraphs projections, there’s a clear message: the rebuild is in full swing, and patience is going to be tested.
Let’s start with the farm system. The Sox are showing up with five prospects on most Top 100 lists, including names like Braden Montgomery, shortstops Billy Carlson and Caleb Bonemer, plus lefties Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz.
That’s a solid haul, especially after trading away nearly every veteran with a pulse. It’s no surprise, then, that their farm system has climbed to No. 8 in some rankings.
But even among the prospect hype, there are red flags. Braden Montgomery, the headliner of the group, has talent but also question marks after missing significant time with injury.
Hagen Smith is viewed as a mid-rotation ceiling guy, and there’s real concern about whether Noah Schultz can stay healthy or consistently find the strike zone. On the flip side, evaluators are high on Carlson, with some calling him one of the best high school shortstops they’ve scouted.
Bonemer, meanwhile, may not stick at shortstop - but we’ve heard that before about Colson Montgomery, and he’s still holding it down.
So yes, there’s potential in the pipeline. But the big-league roster? That’s a different story.
Vegas oddsmakers have set the White Sox projected win total in a range that suggests a 96-loss season is in play. And when you look at some of the projected lineups, it’s not hard to see why.
The outfield, in particular, looks like a defensive adventure. Andrew Benintendi in left has had his struggles with the glove, Luisangel Acuña is on his third organization and still trying to prove he can handle center field, and Brooks Baldwin in right brings a lot of energy but not a lot of consistency.
Now let’s talk projections - specifically, FanGraphs’ ZiPS model, which ranks 1,903 players by projected fWAR for the 2026 season. The top names are the usual suspects: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, the stars.
But when it comes to the White Sox, you have to scroll. And scroll.
And scroll.
Position Players:
- **Pages 1-3? ** No White Sox to be found.
- Page 4: Catcher Kyle Teel finally makes an appearance at No. 99 overall with a projected 2.6 WAR. Most of that value comes from his defense behind the plate.
Offensively, he’s pegged as average - a .247 average, 12 homers, and a 101 wRC+.
- Page 5: Still no Luis Robert Jr., who shows up just after.
- Page 6: Colson Montgomery lands at No. 152 with 2.2 WAR. Despite his 2025 power surge, ZiPS isn’t buying in just yet, projecting a .216 average with 23 homers, 159 strikeouts, and a below-average 94 wRC+.
Also on this page is Sam Antonacci - a bit of a surprise inclusion - projected for 2.1 WAR and a 101 wRC+.
- Page 7: Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami checks in at No. 202 with 1.8 WAR.
His bat looks solid - 24 homers, a .352 OBP, and a 121 wRC+ - but his defense is projected to be a major liability, dragging down his overall value. That 1.8 WAR puts him just below the 2.0 threshold typically used to define a solid everyday starter.
After that, it’s a steep drop-off. Chase Meidroth (No. 216) and Miguel Vargas (No. 245) are in the 1.6 WAR range.
Curtis Mead is even lower at No. 382.
Benintendi and Lenyn Sosa barely register positive value, largely due to poor defensive metrics. Even Edgar Quero, a promising young catcher, is only projected for 0.6 WAR.
Pitchers:
If you were hoping the pitching side might offer a little more optimism, well… it’s a mixed bag.
- Page 2: Shane Smith is the top-ranked White Sox pitcher at No. 59 with a projected 2.1 WAR. That’s respectable, but he’s the only Sox arm in the top 100.
- Page 5: Davis Martin shows up at No. 142 with 1.4 WAR.
- Pages 6-8: The rest of the projected rotation includes Duncan Davitt (No.
193), Jonathan Cannon (No. 201), Grant Taylor (No. 212), and Anthony Kay (No.
220). All of them are projected below the 2.0 WAR threshold, suggesting a rotation filled with back-end or fringe starters.
And if you’re feeling nostalgic, yes - Dylan Cease (No. 9) and Chris Sale (No. 21) are still getting it done… just not in a White Sox uniform.
Bottom Line:
This is a team deep in transition. The front office has committed to a full teardown, and the farm system is reflecting that with a growing crop of talent.
But the major league roster? It’s thin, especially in terms of impact talent.
The projections suggest a team that will struggle to score runs, prevent them, and field cleanly - a tough trifecta for any club trying to stay competitive.
There are reasons to watch - Colson Montgomery’s development, Kyle Teel behind the plate, the arrival of Murakami - but expectations should be tempered. The rebuild is real, and it’s going to take more than a few promising names on prospect lists to turn things around.
For now, White Sox fans may want to keep one eye on Birmingham and Charlotte, because the real excitement might still be a couple of years away.