Chicago’s arbitration picture is starting to come into focus, and the White Sox have a handful of decisions that should be pretty straightforward once the Tender Deadline arrives.
The basic question is simple: if a player’s projected arbitration salary lands in a range the club is willing to guarantee, he gets tendered. If not, the team can move on and non-tender him, which sends him straight to free agency and off the 40-man roster. There’s also the pre-tender route, where a deal gets done before the deadline and the arbitration process gets taken off the board entirely.
At catcher, Bart looks like the most likely casualty. The expectation here is a DFA/non-tender, with Teel projected to handle most of the work behind the plate.
Bart’s projected price tag is more than the club wants to pay for a backup catcher, especially when that role can be filled more cheaply and with less risk through the minor-league free-agent market. Teel’s injury history does leave some room for debate, but Bart’s 5+ rights make the non-tender call the more likely one.
Huascar Brazoban, meanwhile, looks like a clean tender case. The right-hander turned in a 2.96 ERA over 67 innings and collected 10 holds, but the arbitration system tends not to reward middle relievers with huge jumps.
Hoby Milner’s 2023 case offers the ceiling, while Nick Mears in 2025 is the closest match. Based on those comparables, Brazoban is projected for a $925,000 raise to $1.975 million.
That should be enough to keep him in the fold without a hearing.
Doyle is in a similar spot. His season included 223 plate appearances, six homers, 14 steals and a 69 wRC+, but the bigger story was the package he brought overall: time lost to injury, a deadline trade, and elite defense in center field.
Brendan Rodgers’ 2023 arbitration case is the best guide, though Doyle’s edge in plate appearances, power, speed and defense points to a slightly better number. The projection here is a $525,000 raise to $3.625 million, and the expectation is that the case gets done without a fight.
Miguel Vargas is the most interesting name in the group. He’s coming off one of the best platform seasons around, made the All-Star team, hit 33 homers and posted a 134 wRC+.
Austin Riley’s 2021 salary is the key reference point, since Riley also came off a 33-homer, 136 wRC+ season with a very similar pre-platform track record. Vargas and Riley each entered the market as 2x qualifiers, and while Vargas carries some extra career plate-appearance bulk, much of that came in optioned seasons.
The projection lands at $4 million, just above Riley’s mark, and the tender call is expected. There is some real hearing potential here, though, because Vargas’ representatives have room to push based on the career path and the differences in bulk.
Chris Murphy checks in at $850,000. His career line includes 116 innings over 76 appearances and three starts, with only three holds, two saves and a 4.34 ERA.
The platform year was rougher: 33.2 innings, 33 appearances, three starts, two holds, one save and a 4.81 ERA, along with significant time off the active roster over the course of his career. J.T.
Chargois and Hunter Harvey are the main comparisons, but Murphy doesn’t have the leverage numbers to climb much higher than those cases. His starting experience and innings keep him from the very bottom of the market, and the projection still lands at $850,000 with a tender expected.
Jordan Leasure rounds out the group at $870,000. He brings 114.1 career innings and 35 combined saves and holds, but his platform season was wrecked by injury, leaving him with just 18.2 innings, three holds and a 6.27 ERA.
José Quijada’s 2024 case is the best comp, and with the league minimum ticking up since then, Leasure is projected just above it. Tendering him looks like the likely outcome.
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