More than five weeks after the MLB trade deadline, the picture is starting to clear. With the regular season down to less than three weeks, the rental bats and arms have already logged enough games to show who has helped, who has flopped, and which front offices made the right kind of bet.
A few of the deadline’s biggest swings are already looking sharp. Tampa Bay’s move for catcher Hicks has paid off in a major way.
The Rays gave up three prospects, including third baseman Brayden Taylor, to pry him away from the Marlins, and the return has been exactly the kind of impact upgrade they were after. Hicks is hitting .310/.402/.494 with a 150 wRC+, four home runs and 17 RBIs, and he’s struck out at just a 9.8% clip.
He’s also been steady defensively and has produced 1.1 fWAR in 28 games. For a 27-year-old under team control through the 2030 season, Tampa Bay got a huge piece without having to wait for the future.
The Dodgers’ gamble on Skubal also belongs near the top of the success list, even if the price was steep. Los Angeles sent Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith to Detroit for the two-time Cy Young winner, a pure rental who can hit free agency after the season.
That kind of move always carries risk, but Skubal has been one of the best deadline additions in baseball. In 48 innings, he’s gone 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, 48 strikeouts and 10 walks.
His 2.54 FIP ranks fourth in baseball among qualified pitchers since the deadline, and his 1.4 fWAR is tied for third. With Shohei Ohtani not pitching again this year, that kind of arm could end up being massive for Los Angeles.
Not every contender got the jolt it wanted. Seattle went out and got Ward from the Orioles to give its lineup another outfield bat, sending reliever Alex Hoppe and minor league pitchers Brock Moore and Harrison Kreiling to Baltimore.
Instead of a spark, the Mariners have gotten a disaster. Ward has hit just .115/.216/.141 with no home runs and five RBIs since arriving.
Among hitters with at least 80 plate appearances since the deadline, his -0.8 fWAR ranks 247th out of 249, and his 13 wRC+ ranks 248th. That’s brutal, especially for a player who doesn’t bring much value with the glove.
The one silver lining for Seattle is that Ward is set to be a free agent after the season.
Chicago’s deadline swing for Castillo has been rough in a different way. The White Sox brought in the veteran three-time All-Star hoping he could stabilize a rotation in pursuit of an AL Central title, and they were banking on a bounce-back.
It hasn’t come close. Castillo has made six starts for Chicago and is 1-2 with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP, while allowing 22 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings.
His 23 strikeouts and eight walks don’t rescue the line, and his numbers since the deadline are near the bottom of the league among pitchers with at least 20 innings. The contract makes it sting even more: Castillo is due $24.15 million next season, and there’s a $25 million vesting option for 2028 if he reaches 180 innings, which looks unlikely.
On the prospect side, Rojas has already made the Mets look good. Chicago dealt the 21-year-old infielder to New York in the Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor trade, and Rojas immediately became the Mets’ top prospect.
He reported to Double A Binghamton and has torn it up there, hitting .283/.341/.602 with nine home runs, 29 RBIs and a 137 wRC+ in 28 games. He was already one of the more interesting names in the deadline prospect class, and he’s only strengthened that reputation since changing organizations.
Signed for $1 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2022, he looks like a player whose ceiling keeps climbing, with a possible MLB debut in ’27.
Taylor’s story has gone the other direction, in the best way for Chicago. He was viewed as a throw-in in the Holmes deal, the kind of piece who might fill a backup outfield role and help defensively down the stretch.
Instead, he’s hit like a middle-of-the-order bat. In 62 at-bats since the deadline, Taylor is slashing .393/.435/.544 with a 175 wRC+, which ranks eighth among all hitters with at least 60 plate appearances in that span.
The 32-year-old had already put up 0.5 fWAR in 67 games with the Mets before the trade, and he’s added 0.9 fWAR in 23 games with the Cubs. What started as a depth move has turned into a real piece for Chicago’s push.
In Other News...
White Sox Pitching Decision Could Change Hagen Smith's Role
Luis Castillos recent stretch has left the White Sox with a little more sorting to do on the mound. After he failed to complete five innings in each of his last four starts, Chicago pushed back his next scheduled outing, and the club has not yet posted probable pitchers for the coming series. Will Venable said Hagen Smith is expected to get the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a sign that the team is still balancing immediate rotation needs with the longer-term plan for a young arm.
For now, the White Sox are still working with Castillo on his mechanics and recovery while keeping other options in play. David Sandlin and Smith are both in the mix, and the way Chicago lines up the next few games could say a lot about how the team wants to handle its pitching depth from here. The rotation picture is still fluid, and Smiths role may end up being shaped as much by Castillos progress as by his own readiness. [Read more 🡒]
White Sox Made A Miguel Vargas Choice Fans Wont Forget Soon
Will Venables decision to sit Miguel Vargas for what he called a routine day off quickly became one of those choices that travels well beyond a single afternoon. The White Sox were deep enough into the season that every lineup decision invited scrutiny, and leaving a star third baseman out of the starting nine only fueled the kind of injury speculation managers usually try to avoid. Venable pushed back on that idea, but the absence still stood out because Vargas has become one of the more important bats in the lineup.
Vargas did eventually pinch hit, but the moment never turned into the kind of late-game spark Chicago needed. He grounded into a double play in a critical spot, and the White Sox lost, which only sharpened the look-back at the original decision. With the season winding down, the bigger point feels pretty simple: if Chicago wants to squeeze out meaningful wins, it needs its best players on the field as often as possible, even when the margins feel small. [Read more 🡒]
White Sox Face A Bullpen Decision That Could Reveal Their Plans
The White Sox have leaned on their bullpen all season, and Sean Newcomb has been one of the more important reasons why. With free agency approaching, his place in the mix is suddenly part of a bigger offseason question for a club that may want to keep the late innings from becoming a weak spot again.
Adrian Morejon is the kind of left-handed reliever who could fit what Chicago is looking for, after turning in steady work over the past three seasons and lining up for free agency himself. The White Sox can still try to bring back Newcomb, but the broader search for a dominant lefty should tell you plenty about how they plan to shape the roster once the offseason begins. [Read more 🡒]