As the 2026 season winds down, a few clubs have gone way off script. Some have blown past preseason projections.
Others have fallen flat despite plenty of expectations. Looking at FanGraphs’ preseason win totals, these are the teams that have stood out the most entering Saturday’s games.
Milwaukee is the clearest overachiever in the group, sitting on pace to finish 17 wins above its projected total. That kind of jump starts with the kind of season Jacob Misiorowski has put together.
He’s been the best pitcher on the planet, leading the Majors in ERA at 1.95, strikeouts with 236 and FanGraphs’ version of WAR at 6.0. The Brewers have gotten even more from Jake Bauers, who has posted an .890 OPS with 25 home runs, while Logan Henderson has turned in a 2.34 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 16 starts.
Kyle Harrison has also held up his end with a 3.66 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings.
And this is hardly unfamiliar territory for Milwaukee. The Brewers won 97 games last season, so maybe it’s not shocking to see them outpacing expectations again. Even more help may already be on the way, too, with MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect Jesús Made and Luis Peña, ranked No. 21, looking like the next high-upside names in the system.
Tampa Bay has also gotten a real lift from players beyond the obvious core. Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and Jonathan Aranda gave the Rays a decent base to build from, but after a 77-win finish in 2025, the roster needed more.
It got it. Nick Martinez has been one of the sharpest pickups of the offseason, putting up a 2.92 ERA in 28 starts and making his first All-Star team after signing a one-year deal in February.
Victor Mesa Jr., acquired in a minor February trade with the Marlins, has added elite outfield defense and an .816 OPS in 66 games. Bryan Baker, Chandler Simpson, Ian Seymour and Johnny DeLuca have all taken clear steps forward as well.
Chicago’s rise has been even more dramatic in some ways. After being one of baseball’s worst offenses a year ago, the White Sox now sit near the top of the league in most major categories, including sixth in home runs and seventh in runs scored.
Munetaka Murakami has been a huge part of that, smashing 31 homers with an .819 OPS after the club’s surprise signing. But the lineup’s surge goes well beyond one bat.
Miguel Vargas has broken out with 4.5 WAR and 30 homers, Tristan Peters has emerged as a surprise All-Star and a true all-around contributor, and Colson Montgomery has added 31 home runs of his own. Sam Antonacci has posted a .365 OBP, while Chase Meidroth has chipped in a .747 OPS and 3.9 WAR.
On the other side of the ledger, Seattle has gone the wrong direction by 12 wins relative to projection. The Mariners came within one win of their first World Series in 2025, so the expectations were high for a group that returned mostly intact.
Instead, the AL West has been there for the taking and Seattle hasn’t taken advantage. The biggest issue has been regression from the stars.
Cal Raleigh’s follow-up to a 60-homer season was never likely to match that absurd pace, but a .666 OPS and fewer than 30 home runs still weren’t what anyone had in mind. Julio Rodríguez is in the midst of a career-worst season at the plate and in center field.
Josh Naylor has also slipped, and a number of Seattle starters have failed to repeat 2025 or build on it.
The Mets have taken an even bigger hit, sitting on pace to finish 14 wins below projection. A lot of that points back to the offseason overhaul that reshaped the roster.
Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil were out. Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr. and others came in.
The moves looked dramatic then, and they’ve not worked out. Bichette’s OPS has fallen from .840 last season to .714 in the first year of his three-year deal.
Peralta scuffled before being dealt to the Rays at the Trade Deadline. Robert struggled badly enough to be claimed off waivers by the Orioles in August.
Semien’s decline has been the most striking of all, with the veteran enduring the worst season of his career by far.
San Francisco rounds out the list, also 14 wins under projection. The Giants were built around their veteran core, and that has made the combination of injuries and underperformance especially costly.
Rafael Devers has done his part, producing 35 home runs and an .858 OPS. But too many of the other established names have either slipped below their normal level or missed time.
Logan Webb’s 4.10 ERA would be his highest in a full MLB season. Matt Chapman hit just .368 slugging with seven home runs in 84 games before injury ended his season early.
Willy Adames has struggled on both offense and defense and has been sidelined since late August. Put together, it has left the Giants with one of their roughest seasons in recent memory.
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Colson Montgomery and Davis Martin both stressed the need to stay locked in and handle the moment without letting the noise spill onto the field, a sensible message for a team trying to hold its footing this late in the season. The White Sox have still done enough to control their own path, but with the margins shrinking and every game carrying more weight, the next few nights will say plenty about how well they can answer the challenge. [Read more 🡒]