Will the Tigers actually move Tarik Skubal, or will they hang onto the ace and let the deadline noise pass them by?
That question sits at the center of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, because Skubal is the kind of player who can tilt the whole market. The 29-year-old left-hander is a back-to-back American League Cy Young winner, a pending free agent, and still pitching at a level that makes him the biggest name anyone could realistically chase.
If not for the arthroscopic elbow surgery that cost him more than five weeks, he’d probably be in the middle of another Cy Young race right now. He also carries a 152 ERA+ and a 2.85 FIP, and his 8.91 K/BB ratio would lead the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.
That makes him a rental, yes, but not just any rental. No other available arm figures to move the needle quite like this for a team with October in mind.
Detroit is the obvious place to start, and not just because Skubal already wears a Tigers uniform. The club is seven games below .500, but it’s also only 4 ½ games out of the third and final wild-card spot.
The standings are crowded, but not so crowded that Detroit can comfortably wave the white flag. The run differential says something different too: the Tigers have played like a team seven games above .500.
That gives them a real argument to stay in the race, keep Skubal, and see whether a push can carry them to a third straight playoff trip. If that happens, the next step would be a qualifying offer before free agency.
If Detroit does listen, though, there will be no shortage of suitors.
Atlanta makes sense because the rotation has been battered. The Braves have gone below .500 since June 1, and the injuries have hit hard.
Spencer Strider is likely finished for the year with elbow issues, and Spencer Schwellenbach still has no clear return date after February elbow surgery. Skubal would slide into a front line with Chris Sale and give Atlanta a much stronger chance to hold off the Phillies in the NL East while also building a playoff rotation that looks far more dangerous.
The Dodgers always belong in any conversation about a star on the move, and this one is no different. Los Angeles has the kind of rotation upside that looks outrageous on paper, but it also comes with the usual injury questions.
The club has the farm system to make a deal, and Skubal would give them a dependable No. 1 starter for October. After that, they can sort through the rest of the staff depending on the health of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.
Chicago is another fit built around pitching problems. The Cubs have what amounts to an entire good rotation on the injured list, and they won’t get Justin Steele or Cade Horton back this season.
They already added Aaron Civale, but he’s more of a short-term fix than a difference-maker. If the Cubs are going to keep pressure on the Brewers in the NL Central and protect their playoff position, an ace like Skubal would change the equation in a hurry.
Tampa Bay also belongs in the mix. The Rays sit atop the AL East, but they still have clear needs before the deadline, and a proven starter at the front of the rotation may be the biggest one.
Shane McClanahan could eventually face workload concerns in his comeback season, while 35-year-old Nick Martinez could run into regression. Skubal would give them the certainty and high-end production they don’t currently have.
San Diego is trickier, but not impossible. It’s not obvious the Padres should be buyers, though AJ Preller usually acts like one.
Their farm system is thin, so getting Skubal would require creativity. Still, the rotation has a hole in terms of depth and reliability behind Michael King, even if Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove return sometime in August as expected.
Ten starts from Skubal down the stretch would give San Diego a major boost in its push with the current core.
Toronto fits for similar reasons. Dylan Cease is in the Cy Young conversation in his first year with the Blue Jays, but the rest of the rotation needs help.
A possible return from Max Scherzer doesn’t change that much. Shane Bieber has been an injury risk and has also been broadly ineffective this season, while rookie Trey Yesavage has had consistency issues.
If the Blue Jays are going to make up ground and get another shot at defending their American League pennant, Skubal alongside Cease would give them one of the best one-two punches in the sport.
And then there’s Milwaukee, the long-shot pick. The Brewers don’t usually make this kind of splash, but this would echo their 2008 deadline move for CC Sabathia.
They need innings to stay ahead of the Cubs, and they need a second ace next to Jacob Misiorowski if they’re going to make a serious run at the World Series. Brandon Woodruff is done for the year, Kyle Harrison is dealing with elbow problems, and Misiorowski is headed for a major innings jump.
Skubal would check a lot of boxes if Milwaukee decided to swing big.
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