Shota Imanaga’s rough night Sunday did more than sink the Cubs’ series finale against the Reds. It pushed the left-hander into a place no pitcher in MLB history has ever been before: he became the first left-hander to allow three or more home runs in six starts this season.
That kind of home-run problem is hard to ignore, and it showed again in Cincinnati. Imanaga finished with 5 innings, 6 earned runs, 8 hits and 3 homers allowed, raising his season ERA to 4.01. The big issue has been consistent all year - the ball keeps leaving the park - and he now leads all National League pitchers with 33 home runs allowed.
Pete Crow-Armstrong added two more homers of his own, but the Cubs still dropped the game and the series. Now the Milwaukee Brewers are coming to Wrigley Field for a three-game set beginning Monday night, and they arrive eight games ahead in the NL Central.
After the loss, Craig Counsell didn’t sound ready to make any drastic move with Imanaga’s place in the rotation.
Craig Counsell, on whether Shota Imanaga’s spot is in jeopardy: "If you look at the season he’s having, he’s having a pretty decent season. I wouldn’t say that at all, no.
We need Shota. We need Shota to be good for us.
So we gotta work at helping him be better." #Cubs
Still, the timing matters. The Cubs no longer have the cushion they once did for the top wild-card position, with the Phillies pulling even after Sunday’s loss. That makes the final month feel a lot less forgiving, and it raises the question of how long the leash can really be if Imanaga keeps serving up mistakes.
There’s also a familiar October parallel hanging over this. If the Cubs reach the postseason, Imanaga could wind up in a role similar to Jason Hammel’s in 2016.
Hammel was a key part of that team’s rotation during the regular season, posting a 3.83 ERA in 30 starts. But when October arrived, he never appeared in the playoffs.
The 2016 Cubs had a rotation that stayed remarkably healthy all year, with every starter making at least 29 starts and throwing more than 165 innings. Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester were both NL Cy Young finalists, and Jake Arrieta still had stretches that looked a lot like his 2015 self.
Hammel’s season, though, had faded by the end, especially in September, and Joe Maddon went with the safest option when the games got biggest.
The same kind of decision could be waiting for Counsell. The Cubs learned last October that they were willing to choose a bullpen game in Game 5 of the NLDS instead of trusting Imanaga. September will go a long way toward deciding whether he keeps his rotation spot when it matters most.
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