Shelby Miller is already moving faster than the original timeline the Chicago Cubs had in mind, and that alone makes his rehab worth watching.
The veteran right-hander, who had Tommy John surgery last October, was expected to spend 2026 finishing his recovery before aiming for a full comeback in 2027. Instead, he’s been throwing in Arizona and took another step Sunday with a rehab outing for Triple-A Iowa.
Miller worked one inning, threw 14 pitches and landed 11 of them for strikes in his first official game action since Sept. 1, 2025.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell has spoken highly of Miller and left open the possibility that the pitcher could be an option in September if everything keeps moving in the right direction. Even so, Counsell also made clear the club plans to handle this carefully. Miller’s minor league rehab assignment is expected to be longer than usual, with Chicago choosing to slow-play his return after a second major elbow surgery.
That caution makes sense. The Cubs do not want to push him too hard and risk losing him again next season.
Miller’s 2025 season before the injury was strong. He posted a 2.47 ERA with a 29.0 K% over 46 innings, and while there’s no guarantee he can jump right back to that level after elbow surgery, the fact that he’s already pitching in games is a major development. If all goes well, he could still end up giving the Cubs a late-season bullpen boost.
Miller’s own outlook has sounded more upbeat than the initial timeline suggested. The 35-year-old told the Chicago Tribune that he hopes to return sooner than September if his body keeps responding well.
“My goal is hopefully be back even a little bit sooner than that (September), depending on how I feel, but I’m really optimistic about getting back this year and contributing. “I feel like I’ve taken a pretty big step forward in the gym, and the way my elbow’s recovering and not getting sore from all the lifts and stuff I’m doing, I feel like I’m ready to go ….
“It’s more about just the way I recover,” Miller said. “How am I feeling after I start throwing, is there any soreness, how’s my stuff, how is my sweeper and fastball and my sliders and then you just go from there.”
It would be a remarkable turnaround for Miller, who is working back from his second Tommy John surgery. He also had the procedure in 2017, back when he was still starting for the Atlanta Braves.
The road to this point has been a winding one. Miller opened 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and was one of the best bullpen arms in baseball before landing on the injured list.
In his first 37 appearances, he put up a 1.98 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. His performance was good enough that the Milwaukee Brewers dealt for him at the trade deadline even though he was already on the injured list.
After a month away, Miller returned for Milwaukee on Aug. 9 and made 11 relief appearances, but something clearly wasn’t right. He was shut down in early September after failing to record an out against the Philadelphia Phillies, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in October.
That surgery initially pointed to a lost 2026 season, which is why this latest progress has been such a surprise. The Cubs signed him to a two-year deal this offseason, and the expectation was that the contract was really about giving him time to rehab before he could help later on. The agreement guarantees Miller $2.5 million and, according to Jon Becker, includes an option for 2028 plus incentives that could push the total value to as much as $7.25 million over three years.
The incentive structure also spells out how the Cubs are thinking about this: patience first, upside later. If Miller gets all the way back, there’s real value here. If not, Chicago still has protected itself while betting on a pitcher who has already shown he can come back strong.
For Miller, the comeback arc has been long. He once looked like he was on a star track after solid seasons with the St.
Louis Cardinals and an All-Star Game nod in 2015 with the Braves. He was a full-time starter from 2013 to 2018, though getting back on track after his first Tommy John surgery took time.
He also had a brief run with the Cubs in 2021, making three appearances before a back strain sent him to the injured list. After a rehab assignment to Triple-A, the Cubs released him on May 31.
What came after was a sharp resurgence. Miller reappeared in a big way with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023, posting a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings. That led into an uneven 2024 with the Detroit Tigers, followed by his bounce-back 2025 split between Arizona and Milwaukee.
The bottom line is simple: Miller still has checkpoints ahead, including an MRI later in March before he can officially be cleared to begin this comeback. But after the way Sunday went, the possibility of seeing him help the Cubs before the year is over no longer feels far-fetched.
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