The Cubs have spent most of the season dealing with the same uncomfortable question: do you really pick between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, or do you try to keep both corner outfielders around beyond 2026?
That debate has followed them because both players are set to hit free agency after the 2026 season. And while the idea of keeping both might sound aggressive, it’s not crazy. It became even more complicated after Chicago sent Owen Caissie - the club’s corner outfield succession plan - to the Marlins in the Edward Cabrera trade last winter.
Still, one thing is hard to argue with: Suzuki has become too important to let leave with nothing coming back.
So what does that kind of player cost?
If the Cubs decide they want to stay in the Seiya Suzuki business, the numbers are starting to point toward a serious payday. A useful place to start is with the last four seasons, since Suzuki’s rookie year in 2022 came with injury issues and the usual adjustment from Japan to Major League Baseball. From 2023 through 2026, he’s hit .272/.353/.485 with a 131 wRC+ and produced 13.3 fWAR.
That puts him in strong company. Since 2023, only 11 outfielders have been more valuable by fWAR, and the names ahead of him are loaded with star power: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker among them.
Suzuki is not about to land the kind of contract those players received. But the company he’s keeping tells you plenty about his market. One of the cleaner comparisons is Cody Bellinger, who signed a five-year, $162.5 million deal with the Yankees before the 2026 season.
Bellinger has traditionally been the better defender and has brought more versatility, though Suzuki has narrowed that gap this year. At the plate, Suzuki has also been the more productive hitter over the last few seasons, while Bellinger has posted a 121 wRC+ since 2021.
The Cubs’ situation only adds pressure. They do not have an obvious answer waiting behind Happ and Suzuki, and the best internal possibilities are Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcántara. Neither has shown he can handle a full-time starting job in the majors.
That doesn’t mean Chicago would simply hand Suzuki the Bellinger contract. The looming lockout changes the math, and the Cubs are likely to be careful. But if they want to keep Suzuki from reaching the market, a $150 million threshold looks far more realistic than many fans might think.
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But Early wound up going to Washington instead, with the Nationals beating the Cubs to the deal in a swap that sent Curtis Mead to Boston. Both players were dealing with injury issues by the time the dust settled, and Early still has not pitched for Washington this season. For the Cubs, missing out may have looked like a dead end in the moment, but it also kept their deadline haul focused on the bigger arms they brought in, and it may have spared them from a lingering rotation question they did not know they were avoiding. [Read more 🡒]