The Cubs have plenty of pitching problems to sort through this offseason, but Seiya Suzuki may be the position-player decision that shapes everything else.
Jed Hoyer is clearly staring down an arms-first winter. Chicago’s pitching staff was beaten up by injuries this season, and last winter’s bullpen overhaul did not deliver the results the front office expected.
Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton and Hoby Milner all fell short of expectations, while Edward Cabrera was a major disappointment as the team’s top trade addition. There’s a lot to fix on that side of the roster.
Still, the Cubs also have real uncertainty in the outfield, with Ian Happ and Suzuki both potentially on the way out. That means Chicago has to decide whether it wants to replace them or try to keep at least one of them around on a new deal.
This week, Spotrac offered the first clear idea of what Suzuki could cost in free agency, and the number is big enough to make the Cubs think hard. The projection landed on a four-year deal worth about $90 million, which comes out to a $22.4 million average annual value.
That would be a step up from the $17 million AAV in Suzuki’s original five-year contract with Chicago, but his recent production makes the price tag easier to understand. The 32-year-old has been one of the most reliable bats among outfielders, and he just put together an .841 OPS this season while also earning a Gold Glove nomination in right field.
Among the position-player names available this winter, few bring Suzuki’s kind of upside. Randy Arozarena is the main alternative, and he’s coming off a 26-homer, 26-steal season in Seattle.
The Cubs do have plenty of money coming off the books, so the contract itself should be manageable. The bigger question is priority. Pitching has to be the main target, but after Suzuki’s strong season, letting him walk would create another hole at exactly the wrong time for a team that believes it’s in the heart of its contention window.
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