The Chicago Cubs just watched the Baltimore Orioles make a bold move-and it likely sent a ripple through their front office. Baltimore, in serious need of starting pitching, bypassed the free-agent market and instead struck a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Shane Baz.
But this wasn’t your typical prospect-for-veteran swap. The Orioles paid a steep price, and that cost could have major implications for how the Cubs approach the rest of their offseason.
Let’s break down the deal: Baltimore sent four prospects-Slater De Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, and Austin Overn-to Tampa Bay. That package includes two top-10 prospects in the Orioles’ system, one ranked in the top 20, and another in the top 30.
Oh, and they added a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick on top. That’s a hefty haul for a pitcher who, while talented, is still a bit of a project.
Baz has shown flashes of promise, but the numbers tell a story of a pitcher who hasn't quite put it all together yet. He owns a career ERA of 4.25 across 54 starts, and in 2025-his first season with more than 25 starts-he posted a 4.87 ERA.
The upside? He’s under team control through 2028.
If he takes a step forward, this could look like a masterstroke for Baltimore. But if he doesn’t, they’ve just moved a significant chunk of their farm system for a mid-rotation arm.
And that’s where the Cubs come in.
Chicago has also been in the market for starting pitching help, but this trade likely slams the door shut on the idea of acquiring a cost-controlled arm via trade this winter. If Baz commands that kind of return, what’s the asking price now for someone like MacKenzie Gore or Edward Cabrera? Spoiler alert: it’s probably sky-high.
The Cubs already showed restraint at the trade deadline, passing on the Nationals' and Marlins' asking prices for their young arms. That restraint seems even more justified now.
A pitcher like Baz, who still needs development, doesn’t quite fit the Cubs’ current trajectory. They’re looking to contend in 2026, and betting on upside with a long runway for growth doesn’t align with that window.
So where does that leave Chicago?
With Michael King now off the free-agent board, the options are thinning out. The Cubs’ focus may now shift toward international standout Tatsuya Imai or proven MLB starter Zac Gallen. Either would bring immediate impact to the rotation, and landing Imai in particular could flip the narrative that’s been circling the team in recent weeks-that they’ve been too passive while others around them have gotten aggressive.
But if they miss on both? That could spell trouble.
The Cubs have made it clear they intend to compete, and a rotation upgrade is a must to back that up. Watching the Orioles pay big for Baz was a reminder of just how expensive pitching has become-especially when it comes with years of control.
For Chicago, the challenge now is finding a path forward that doesn’t mortgage the future but still delivers the help they need to stay on track for 2026.
The trade market just got a lot more complicated. Now it’s up to the Cubs to adjust.