The Cubs are back in the playoffs, and the path in front of them looks awfully familiar.
Chicago wrapped up its postseason berth with Thursday’s 2-1 win over the Marlins and now has its sights set on the No. 4 seed, just as it did a year ago. Last season, the Cubs took the home Wild Card Series in three games before falling in five to the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee is back on top of the NL Central again, which only adds to the sense that this October could follow a very similar script.
This is also the second straight playoff trip for a group that came together after the four-year rebuild led by club president Jed Hoyer. That reset followed one of the best runs in franchise history, a stretch that included three straight NLCS appearances and the 2016 World Series title, the Cubs’ first since 1908.
The question now is whether this team can go deeper.
The strongest case starts with the lineup. The Cubs lead the majors in runs scored and slugging percentage, sit in a three-way fight at the top of the on-base percentage race, and rank second in home runs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the middle of a 40-40 season - the seventh such season in MLB history - and looks lined up to win National League MVP. But the offense is hardly a one-man show.
Alex Bregman has been one of baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star break, Seiya Suzuki keeps producing, and even the bottom of the order can do real damage. The bench has been a weapon too, with Pedro Ramirez, Matt Shaw, Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor all delivering big moments without being everyday starters.
Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya have also combined for more than 3 WAR behind the plate.
It’s a deep, balanced attack. The Cubs can beat you with power, but they don’t need to live and die by it. They also have three legitimate stolen base threats.
Then there’s the defense, which may be even more convincing. Chicago has the fewest errors in baseball and the best fielding percentage, but the real separation shows up in range-based metrics.
Outs above average has the Cubs at 72, miles ahead of the Diamondbacks at 44. Only one other team is above 30, and 14 teams are in the negative.
That’s a runaway gap.
Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at the top of the sport in outs above average, and the support around him is strong. Michael Busch ranks in the top five at first base, Nico Hoerner is in the top 10 at second, Bregman is second among third basemen, Dansby Swanson is fourth at short, Suzuki and Ian Happ handle the corners well, and the catching tandem gives them stability behind the plate. It’s as complete a defensive group as there is.
The real swing factor, though, is the pitching.
In a strange twist, the Cubs lead the majors in position-player WAR and rank last in pitcher WAR, even behind the Rockies, A’s and Nationals. That’s the part that could sink them if a playoff series turns ugly. But it’s also the area where there’s at least a path to something better.
Clay Holmes has been excellent at times since arriving at the trade deadline, including a four-start August stretch with a 0.36 ERA, though his three September starts have been rough. Kevin Gausman still has frontline-starter upside.
Matthew Boyd has had trouble late in games recently, but he’s been strong through five innings over the last month. David Peterson owns a 2.86 ERA over his last 66 innings after a strong outing Sunday, which makes him a workable No.
- Shota Imanaga has been up and down, but he’s been good in each of his last four starts.
That gives the Cubs a chance to piece together four starters from that group.
The bullpen picture has more moving parts, but also more options. Colin Rea, Javier Assad and Aaron Civale have all started games and could be used in relief, with Civale especially effective in multi-inning work.
Justin Steele is working back from Tommy John surgery and was dominant in two rehab innings with five strikeouts in his last outing. Ryan Zeferjahn has the kind of stuff that plays if he can command it.
Daniel Palencia has been dominant before and has been on a promising run lately. Jacob Webb has struggled badly, but he was terrific from June 24 to Aug. 21, when he posted a 0.00 ERA in 24 ⅔ innings.
Ryan Rolison has given the Cubs a 3.02 ERA and 1.1 WAR in a versatile relief role and deserves meaningful innings. Caleb Thielbar and the injured Trent Thornton also factor into the mix.
With playoff rosters capped at 13 pitchers, not everyone can fit. But if Chicago can settle on a group that holds up, the upside is real.
The Cubs have enough offense and defense to make noise. If the arms cooperate even a little, they have a route to something bigger.
In Other News...
Cubs Wild Card Push Just Took Another Chaotic Turn
The Cubs final regular-season game will come with a wrinkle nobody in Wrigleyville likely saw coming. Instead of finishing against the Red Sox in Boston, Chicago will meet Boston at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon after a noreaster forced the series finale out of the Northeast, adding one more layer of unpredictability to a stretch already packed with pressure and travel.
Both clubs are set to head to Tampa Bay after Fridays games so they can get ahead of the storm, with the Cubs and Red Sox wrapping up a doubleheader before the relocation is finalized. The matchup is scheduled for 2:05 p.m. CT, and while the venue change will not alter the standings math, it does turn an already important season-ending game into something a little more chaotic, and a lot less familiar. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Added A Pitching Depth Arm With A Bigger Role At Stake
The Cubs added another layer to their pitching staff by claiming right-hander Julian Aguiar off waivers from the Reds, a move that fits the late-season need for arms as the calendar runs down. Aguiar, who is back in the majors after missing the 2025 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, gives Chicago a depth option at a time when clubs are often looking for workable innings wherever they can find them.
He is not eligible for the Cubs postseason roster, so the immediate focus is more modest, but there is still a possible role before the year ends. Chicago could get a look at him in the season finale, which would at least give the organization one more chance to evaluate where he stands after the long recovery and whether he can be part of the picture moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Regular-Season Finale Just Got A Lot More Complicated
A weather system has turned the Cubs regular-season finish into a much stranger trip than expected. The final game of their season-ending series with the Red Sox, originally set for Saturday at Fenway Park, has been moved to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, because of an expected noreaster, and the matchup is now scheduled for Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET.
Chicago and Boston still have to get through a doubleheader in Boston on Friday before heading south to finish things in Florida. Its a late twist to a series already carrying end-of-season weight, and it leaves both clubs dealing with a revised travel plan at the exact moment they were supposed to be wrapping up the schedule in familiar surroundings. [Read more 🡒]