Cubs' Gamble on Edward Cabrera: A High-Stakes Move
The Chicago Cubs were on the brink of acquiring Jesús Luzardo before the 2025 season, a move that would have sent Owen Caissie to the Miami Marlins. However, concerns over Luzardo's medical history led the Cubs to hesitate, and Luzardo eventually found his way to a division rival. Fast forward, and Luzardo is now celebrating a hefty five-year, $135 million contract extension after a successful stint in Philadelphia, boasting a 3.92 ERA and an impressive 2.90 FIP over 183 2/3 innings.
In response, the Cubs turned their attention to another former Marlins pitcher, Edward Cabrera, with Caissie again at the center of the trade. Now, with Luzardo thriving, the pressure is on for the Cubs to replicate that success with Cabrera.
Cabrera's Potential and Challenges
While Cabrera and Luzardo share a common origin, their paths diverge in several ways. Cabrera, like Luzardo, has faced questions about his durability.
Before 2025, Cabrera hadn't pitched more than 100 innings in a single season or started more than 20 games. The risk of Cabrera spending significant time on the injured list is a concern the Cubs will have to manage.
However, Cabrera brings a year of youth and an extra year of team control compared to Luzardo at the time of his trade. This gives the Cubs a window to develop and harness Cabrera's potential.
His breakout season showcased a 3.53 ERA and a 3.83 FIP, with a strikeout rate exceeding 25%. His arsenal includes a high-90s fastball and a suite of plus breaking and off-speed pitches, making him a tantalizing prospect if health permits.
Paired with Cade Horton, a rising star in his own right, Cabrera adds a dynamic, strikeout-heavy element to the Cubs' rotation, reminiscent of the days when Yu Darvish headlined their pitching staff.
The Road Ahead
Cabrera's journey with the Cubs will inevitably be compared to Luzardo's success. For Cabrera to meet expectations, he must deliver consistently over a full season, shouldering the workload without faltering. The stakes are high, but the potential rewards are immense if Cabrera can stay on the mound and deliver on his promise.
The Cubs' decision to bet on Cabrera is a bold one, and only time will tell if this gamble pays off. But one thing is clear: the Cubs are committed to building a formidable pitching staff, and Cabrera is a crucial piece of that puzzle.