If Jed Hoyer is going to prove the Cubs are serious about changing how they approach pitching additions, this offseason is the place to do it. That means resisting the familiar urge to chase names that fit the usual Cubs mold but come loaded with warning signs.
That’s the heart of the problem here: the signings that look reasonable on the surface can be the ones that quietly drag a team right back into the same trap. Last offseason, Hunter Harvey would have landed in that category. This time around, there are at least three free agents who could tempt Chicago while still posing too many headaches.
Shane Bieber is one of them.
The Cubs have long gravitated toward reclamation types on the mound, and Bieber fits the profile in a way that feels very Cubs. He was a deadline target for Chicago more than a year ago, and with his connection to Carter Hawkins, it would make sense if his name surfaced again this winter.
But the version of Bieber that once sat atop the Guardians’ rotation no longer looks like the answer. He had trouble staying healthy in 2026, and when he did pitch, the results weren’t there.
Bieber finished with a 4.37 ERA in just under 56 innings this year.
Casey Mize is another name that should set off alarms.
He was part of the Cubs’ trade chatter before the San Diego Padres landed him at the deadline this summer, and there was a real belief he might end up in Chicago. The issue is what happened to his stuff along the way.
By the end of his run in Detroit, Mize’s velocity had dipped, and it never fully bounced back with San Diego. His fastball averaged 93.8 mph with the Tigers last year, then sat below 92.7 mph with the Padres.
That doesn’t look like random fluctuation; it looks like something deeper is going on.
Then there’s Bryan Abreu, a reliever who also fits an all-too-familiar Cubs template.
Chicago has shown a clear soft spot for former Astros arms who might need some tinkering, and that path has already given them problems with Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly. Phil Maton is another former Astro in the mix.
So yes, Abreu would make some sense if Hoyer is thinking in the same old way. But he shouldn’t.
Abreu ended the season with a respectable 3.73 ERA for the Astros, yet the warning signs were hard to miss. His fastball velocity dropped by nearly two MPH, and his walk rate climbed by nearly five percent.
Those are the kinds of details that should matter. And for the Cubs, they should be enough to keep them away.
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Rogers 2026 season with Baltimore was steady enough to keep him on the radar, especially with a 3.45 FIP backing up a 4.03 ERA, but his groundball rate dipped compared to previous years. The wrinkle for the Cubs is that the Orioles may extend a qualifying offer, and under the current CBA that could make any pursuit more expensive and more complicated than Chicago would like. [Read more 🡒]