The Cubs have spent much of the first half patching together a rotation that keeps getting hit by injuries, and that reality has pushed Javier Assad into a bigger role than anyone probably expected. With the All-Star Break looming, Chicago still needs innings wherever it can find them, and Assad has quietly become one of the more important pieces holding things together.
That matters even more because the Cubs’ rotation depth has been stretched thin. Excluding openers, 10 different pitchers have already made multiple starts for the North Siders this season, but only Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea have reached at least 15. Jameson Taillon, Ben Brown, and Edward Cabrera are all expected back at some point in the second half, which should help, but the Cubs are going to need more than just the marquee names as they try to get through the playoff push.
Assad fits that need in a very specific way. He’s been used as a swingman all year, making eight starts and seven relief appearances while logging 61.1 innings.
The split tells the story: he’s been much better in the rotation, where he owns a 3.64 ERA compared to a 5.12 ERA out of the bullpen. That lines up with the kind of arm he’s always been - a pitch-to-contact guy who tends to settle in the longer he stays on the mound.
The numbers overall are a little strange, though. Assad is carrying the highest ERA of his career at 4.11, along with a 5.22 FIP, but he’s also trimmed his walk rate to a career-low 6.1% and posted a career-best 1.13 WHIP. In other words, the surface results haven’t always looked clean, but there’s real progress underneath.
Javier Assad lowered his BB/9 to 2.20 tonight. His career rate is 3.51.
Limiting the walks would be a welcomed development. Lowering walks may result in fewer strikeouts, but at the same time it may allow him to pitch greater innings per start with more frequency.
That improvement has a lot to do with a reworked sinker, which produced a +6 run value in the first half. He’s throwing it harder now, and the pitch is showing more arm-side movement and induced vertical break. For a pitcher whose game is built on contact management and efficiency, that’s a meaningful development.
The early-season damage did drag his line down. Assad had two rough outings in April - a nine-run loss to the Phillies and a six-run outing against the Dodgers.
But outside of those games, he’s been far more stable. In his other 13 appearances this season, he’s allowed more than three runs only once.
That’s why his value goes beyond the ERA. Just being on the mound has mattered for a Cubs staff that has needed bodies and stability in equal measure. Assad has a 2.55 ERA since May 1, and if he keeps building on the control gains and sinker improvements he’s already shown, he could end up being a lot more than a stopgap.
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