Cubs’ Michael Soroka Situation: Low-Risk, High-Upside Swingman or Injury Gamble?
When the Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the trade deadline this past July, the move raised more than a few eyebrows. Fans were hoping for a more established arm to bolster the rotation, and it didn’t help that Soroka’s Cubs debut was cut short by - you guessed it - another injury. For a pitcher whose career has been defined as much by medical updates as by box scores, the skepticism was understandable.
But here’s the thing: in the limited time Soroka was actually on the mound for Chicago, he showed flashes of the guy who once looked like a future ace in Atlanta.
Let’s start with the numbers. In just 8.1 innings with the Cubs, Soroka posted a 1.08 ERA.
Yes, it’s a tiny sample size. And yes, there were four unearned runs in one outing that muddy the waters a bit.
But context matters. That game - September 23 against the Mets - saw Soroka enter in relief and get tripped up by a rare error from Dansby Swanson.
Two of those unearned runs didn’t even score on Soroka’s watch - they came after he exited, courtesy of a three-run homer allowed by Taylor Rogers.
So while the box score might not tell the full story, the eye test and underlying performance suggest Soroka wasn’t pitching poorly. He was just snakebitten - again.
What’s more interesting is what the Cubs did with him behind the scenes. They tweaked his pitch mix, dialing back the fastball and changeup while leaning more on his curve and sinker.
The fastball velocity ticked up slightly - averaging about half a mile per hour faster than it did during his stint in Washington. Again, small sample size, but it’s a sign that the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure may have been working to unlock something.
Now, let’s talk role. Soroka isn’t being penciled in as one of the Cubs’ top five starters - nor should he be.
The ideal scenario? He slots in as a swingman.
Think Colin Rea, but with a higher ceiling. A guy who can eat innings out of the bullpen, spot-start when injuries inevitably hit, and maybe - just maybe - rediscover the form that made him a 2019 All-Star with the Braves.
That upside is still there. Soroka is only 28, which is right in the sweet spot for most pitchers.
The problem, of course, is the track record of staying healthy. That’s why it’s hard to imagine any team offering him more than a one-year deal this winter.
Maybe a one-year contract with a team option for a second if things go well.
Last offseason, the Nationals gave him $9 million on a one-year deal. After another injury-riddled campaign, that number’s likely coming down.
A more realistic offer? Something in the $6 million range - a figure that reflects both the risk and the potential reward.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel slotted Soroka as the 35th-best free agent this winter and projected a two-year, $23 million deal. But that feels optimistic, especially when most other rankings don’t even include him in their top 50. MLB Trade Rumors gave him an “honorable mention,” which is probably a better reflection of the market.
Bottom line: Soroka’s future is a gamble, but not a reckless one. For a team like the Cubs, who are trying to build depth without blowing up the budget, he represents a smart, calculated risk.
If he stays healthy, he’s a weapon. If not, the financial hit is manageable.
And in a league where pitching depth can make or break a season, that’s the kind of bet worth making.