Carson Kelly’s decision to decline his end of a mutual option for the 2027 season only sharpens the Cubs’ offseason picture at catcher.
The free-agent pool behind the plate is thin, and that’s why Kelly’s move comes as no real surprise. Even though the expectation through the regular season was that Chicago would head into next year with Miguel Amaya and Owen Ayers as its catching tandem, there have also been recent hints that the Cubs could make bringing Kelly back a priority.
That makes the next few weeks especially important. Free agents can begin agreeing to deals with new teams starting Monday night, and with a lockout looming on December 2, there’s a sense that the market could move quickly in November.
For a catcher, timing matters. It would make sense for someone in position to land a starting job in 2027 to get a deal done before December.
Players can talk to one another during the lockout, but team and player can’t have official communication. That creates a real headache for a starting catcher who would need to learn a whole new pitching staff, especially if he’s heading somewhere new.
That’s part of why Kelly would seem to have a built-in reason to stay put. If the terms are right, Chicago offers familiarity, and Kelly has also become a major part of the Cubs’ success over the last two years. He has mattered not just on the field, but also in the work that happens behind the scenes.
It’s one of those situations where the dots are easy to connect: if Kelly wants to stay, and the Cubs are willing to pay him at or above his market value, there’s a strong chance a deal gets done.
The market itself could help push things in that direction. Kelly is one of only three or four free-agent catchers who can realistically be viewed as a starting option next season.
Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Stephenson, and Austin Hedges are the others mentioned. Jeffers and Stephenson profile more as bat-first catchers, while Hedges has long been viewed as a glove-first option.
Kelly sits in the middle. Over the past two years, he has offered a strong blend of offense and defense, and that combination should put him in line for multiple multi-year offers.
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