The Chicago Cubs may already have their most trustworthy playoff reliever, and he’s not wearing the label you’d expect.
Aaron Civale has spent his time in Chicago as a bulk arm, but the numbers say he’s been the club’s best bullpen answer over the last two months. Since the trade deadline, the Cubs’ relief corps has been a mess: 17th in the league with a 4.11 ERA, 28th with a 4.65 FIP, and sitting at -0.4 fWAR as a group.
The unit’s struggles have been spread around, too. Jacob Webb has stumbled to a 5.71 ERA and sits last among Cubs relievers with -0.4 fWAR.
Edward Cabrera has been described as outright useless out of the bullpen. Even Daniel Palencia, despite some strong outings, has posted a 4.85 ERA since returning from the injured list.
There have only been three Cubs relievers on the positive side of the fWAR ledger since Aug. 3, and two of them - Ryan Zeferjahn and Caleb Thielbar - are at just 0.2. Civale stands as the clear outlier. He’s been the one reliable bright spot in a group that has left the Cubs searching for answers.
That’s what makes his case so interesting heading toward October. The right-hander has made 17 appearances for Chicago this season, covering 34 1/3 innings, and has produced a 1.57 ERA with a 3.03 FIP.
Since the trade deadline, he’s added 0.5 fWAR, which is a hefty chunk for a bullpen that has offered so little else. Last year, he also showed well in a smaller sample, putting up a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings.
The bigger question now is role. Civale has been effective as a long reliever, but the Cubs already have options to handle the middle innings, including Javier Assad, Colin Rea, and whichever starter doesn’t crack Craig Counsell’s playoff rotation. What they lack is a reliever who can come in and slam the door in high-leverage moments.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Civale needs to be turned into a one-inning fireman. But as a multi-inning setup man, he looks like a natural bridge from the rotation to whoever Counsell chooses as his playoff closer.
He may not match the traditional profile of that job, but he doesn’t walk many hitters and he keeps the ball in the park. Right now, that’s more than enough to make him the Cubs’ most compelling bullpen answer.
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Cubs Regular-Season Finale Just Got A Lot More Complicated
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Chicago and Boston still have to get through a doubleheader in Boston on Friday before heading south to finish things in Florida. Its a late twist to a series already carrying end-of-season weight, and it leaves both clubs dealing with a revised travel plan at the exact moment they were supposed to be wrapping up the schedule in familiar surroundings. [Read more 🡒]