The Cubs have spent the 2026 season giving everyone whiplash, and now they’re surging again at just the right time.
Chicago heads into Fourth of July weekend riding a 9-1 stretch, with the trade deadline a little less than a month away. It’s the kind of run that has the club feeling a lot better about itself, even if it hasn’t been enough to fully close the gap on Milwaukee. The Brewers matched the Cubs stride for stride over that same span, going 8-2, so the division picture hasn’t moved much.
Still, there’s no denying how much the mood has changed. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s huge June was good enough to earn him NL Player of the Month honors, and Dansby Swanson put together a late-month surge that saw him make history multiple times. After the way things went in early June, that kind of finish has completely altered the conversation around Craig Counsell’s team.
FanGraphs now pegs the Cubs’ playoff odds at 77.7 percent, their best mark since mid-May. That’s a sharp rebound from early June, when Chicago was sitting at roughly one-in-three odds. The Cubs’ June record of 16-10 helped fuel that climb, and the latest run has pushed the numbers back in a direction nobody in Wrigleyville was seeing a few weeks ago.
Milwaukee still sits comfortably atop the Central, with 98.2 percent playoff odds, and Chicago remains fifth in the National League playoff picture behind the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves and Phillies. But for a club that looked like it might be unraveling not long ago, the shift is real.
The biggest reason is obvious: pitching. That’s the area that will decide the Cubs’ 2026 season, and Jed Hoyer still has a chance to help by adding to both the bullpen and the rotation before the deadline. The staff also needs to get as close to full strength as it can after the season-ending injuries it has already absorbed.
For now, though, the Cubs have given themselves a much better position than they had a month ago. Another series win over St. Louis this weekend would only add to that momentum, and at least for the moment, the direction in Chicago is unmistakably up.
In Other News...
Dansby Swansons Sudden Turnaround Has Cubs Fans Breathing Again
Dansby Swansons bat has finally started to look like the one the Cubs expected when they brought him in, and the change has come fast enough to feel a little jarring. After spending much of the spring buried in a slump, he has suddenly been driving the ball again, stacking up home runs and RBIs in recent games and giving Chicago a much-needed jolt from the middle of the lineup.
Swanson has pointed to a mental reset in early June as part of the turnaround, along with work with assistant coach John Mallee, and the results have been loud enough to put him in some rare Cubs company. His recent power burst has him mentioned alongside a short list of names from franchise history, which is a reminder of how quickly a rough stretch can flip when a veteran hitter finds his timing again. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Suddenly Have A Prospect Bat Fans Have Been Waiting For
Josiah Hartshorn has gone from a name tucked deep in the Cubs farm system to one of the organizations most interesting young bats. The 19-year-old switch-hitting outfielder has climbed quickly in prospect circles, with Baseball America pushing him up to No. 29 on its Top 100 leaderboard after a strong start to the season in Single-A and an even louder showing once he reached High-A.
Hartshorn opened the year with a .884 OPS before the promotion, then kept forcing the issue in South Bend with a .953 OPS and more power than evaluators were expecting this soon. The rising profile has already earned him a spot in the 2026 Futures Game at All-Star Weekend, and for the Cubs, the bigger question now is how far this bat can keep carrying as the competition keeps getting tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Turn To A Familiar Bullpen Fix As Injury Pressure Mounts
The Cubs made a familiar bullpen move this week, optioning left-hander Jordan Wicks to Triple-A and bringing veteran lefty Drew Pomeranz back onto the active roster as the injuries in the relief corps continue to pile up. It is the kind of shuffle that says as much about the current state of the pitching staff as it does about the player coming in, with Chicago leaning on a name it knows well to help steady the late innings.
Pomeranz had already shown he could be more than a stopgap for this club, which is part of why his return stands out now. The Cubs are trying to piece together innings without several key relievers available, and in that kind of environment, experience matters almost as much as stuff. Whether this is simply a temporary patch or the start of another meaningful run for Pomeranz is the part still to watch. [Read more 🡒]