The Cubs will have to sort through a pair of notable departures this winter, with left-hander Matthew Boyd and catcher Carson Kelly officially reaching free agency after the MLBPA’s announcement Friday. Both were on mutual options, and both sides appear to have passed on picking them up. Boyd’s option was worth $15 million with a $2 million buyout, while Kelly’s was valued at $7.5 million with a $1.5 million buyout.
That doesn’t shut the door on Chicago entirely. Boyd and Kelly can still negotiate with the Cubs, even as they’re free to line up with other clubs beginning early next week. But for now, both are on the market.
Boyd’s case is built on how much he gave the Cubs when he was on the mound. He missed a sizable portion of the 2026 season after arthroscopic surgery to repair a partial meniscus tear, but when healthy he delivered 126 2/3 innings with a 3.91 ERA, an 18.5% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a 42.2% ground-ball rate.
The bigger picture on Boyd is a comeback story with some built-in caution. From 2021 to 2024, he managed only 202 2/3 innings because of a string of injuries, including Tommy John surgery.
Chicago still took a two-year, $29 million swing on him after he finished ’24 healthy, betting he could settle back into midrotation form. That gamble worked.
He turned in 53 starts, 306 1/3 innings and a 3.50 ERA, along with a 20.2% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate.
Still, the 2026 season had some warning signs beyond the knee procedure. Boyd’s run prevention held up after he returned, but his strikeout rate dipped all the way to 15.5%.
He did miss a few more bats over the final month, but the overall strikeout profile remained well below average. Teams looking at him in free agency will likely focus on the amount of contact he allowed over the season’s last three months.
Even so, Boyd should do well in free agency. A one-year contract feels like the most realistic outcome, though a second guaranteed season is not impossible. Multi-year deals for pitchers entering their age-36 season are uncommon unless the arm is coming off a truly elite platform year.
Kelly’s market may be even more interesting. The 32-year-old is coming off a .258/.336/.376 season in 2026, and over 846 plate appearances since joining Chicago on a two-year deal in the 2024-25 offseason, he has hit .254/.334/.402. By wRC+, that line checks in nine percent better than league average, which is especially useful at catcher, where offense usually lags well behind.
He brings more than bat-to-ball value, too. Kelly is viewed as a strong defender, even if he had some issues controlling the running game in 2026.
He gets plus marks for blocking pitches in the dirt and is generally at least average as a framer. He was also successful on 69% of his ABS challenges this season, though he did not challenge often enough for that to carry huge weight in Statcast’s view.
At the plate, Kelly has long handled left-handed pitching well. He has been below average against right-handers overall, though that part of his game has held steadier over the last couple seasons.
That blend of defense and platoon value should draw interest, and a two-year deal covering his age-32 and age-33 seasons looks like the likeliest result. A three-year contract is possible, but it would probably take a crowded market to push it there.
With alternatives available both in free agency and on the trade market - Ryan Jeffers and Tyler Stephenson among the free agents, Hunter Goodman and Shea Langeliers among the trade options - that kind of bidding war may never materialize.
Chicago now has a lot to replace. Boyd is leaving, and so are Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, David Peterson and, presumably, Clay Holmes, who is expected to turn down a $12 million player option.
The Cubs do have Miguel Amaya and prospect Owen Ayers as catching options, but a Kelly reunion or another outside addition would not be a surprise. The bigger pressure point is on the mound, where the sheer volume of free agents makes pitching the club’s clear offseason priority.
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