The Cubs have gone from looking like a team with some real margin for error to one trying to steady itself just to make it through September.
Chicago was swept by the Brewers this week, a result that all but locked up the NL Central for Milwaukee, which now sits 10 games ahead of the Cubs. With 15 games left in the regular season, Craig Counsell is still hunting for answers in the bullpen, and the Cubs are suddenly in a precarious spot as the playoff picture tightens around them.
That’s a sharp turn from where things stood on Aug. 18, when Alex Bregman’s walk-off single against the White Sox left Chicago 21 games over .500. At that point, the Cubs were sitting atop the National League Wild Card field, holding a five-game edge over the Phillies and a six-game cushion over the Padres.
Since then, they’ve gone 7-13 and have slipped behind Philadelphia for the No. 1 Wild Card seed.
Right now, the Cubs would be headed to Philadelphia for a best-of-three Wild Card Series. And the bigger problem is that they’re no longer just chasing seeding - they’re protecting their place in the bracket altogether. The Padres are 2.5 games back, and the Diamondbacks are still in the mix, sitting three games behind Chicago for the second Wild Card spot.
NL Wild Card Standings (9/9)
Phillies: 82-64 (+4)
Cubs: 81-66 (+2.5)
Padres: 78-68
Diamondbacks: 78-69 (0.5 GB)
There is at least one useful detail working in Chicago’s favor. The Cubs own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the three clubs they’re fighting with for playoff positioning.
That matters if they’re tied with the Phillies for the top Wild Card seed, since that would send the Cubs back to Wrigley Field for the series. It also gives them the edge over either NL West team if the race stays tight for the second or third Wild Card spot.
The schedule doesn’t exactly offer a soft landing. The Phillies and Padres each have 16 games remaining, while the Cubs and Diamondbacks have 15.
Tankathon rates Chicago’s remaining slate as the ninth-hardest, while Philadelphia’s is the fourth-hardest. The Diamondbacks and Padres check in at 20th and 21st.
Remaining Schedules
Cubs: 3 vs. Pirates, 3 vs.
Braves, 3 at Reds, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 at Red Sox
Phillies: 1 vs. Astros, 3 at Braves, 2 vs.
Nationals, 4 at Mets, 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs.
Rays
Padres: 3 at Giants, 4 at Rockies, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks: 3 vs. Rangers, 3 vs.
Marlins, 3 vs. Yankees, 3 at Rockies, 3 at Padres
The Phillies still have more than one path in front of them, too. They’re currently leading the Wild Card race, but they also enter Thursday three games behind the Braves in the NL East.
For the Cubs, though, the situation is much simpler and much more uncomfortable. Less than a month ago, they looked like they had a real shot at chasing down Milwaukee. Now they’re trying to hold onto a playoff spot at all.
In Other News...
Cubs Wild Card Push Suddenly Hinges On One Growing Problem
The Cubs have managed to stay in control of the second Wild Card spot, but the edge they built is being tested by a bullpen that has become a real concern since the start of August. Aaron Civale has been the one reliever providing steady, positive work, while the rest of the group has too often put the game back on the line late.
Jacob Webbs recent stretch has only added to the worry, with multiple runs allowed in several appearances and three blown saves that turned into losses. With 16 games left in the regular season, Chicago still controls its fate, but the margin for error is getting thinner by the night. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Suddenly Have A Real Ian Happ Decision To Make
Ian Happ has been a fixture for the Cubs for years, but the post-deadline version of the roster has shifted his place in the lineup in a noticeable way. Since the trade deadline, he has been used more like a platoon player, even as he has still supplied plenty of value with 23 home runs and a Gold Glove case in the outfield. The larger question for Chicago is not whether Happ can still help a club, but whether his current production matches the kind of long-term commitment he once looked set to command.
Tyrone Taylors strong showing since arriving gives the Cubs a real alternative to consider, which is why Happs offseason outlook feels less certain than it did a few months ago. His overall offensive profile remains useful, but a 106 wRC+ sits below his usual standard, and that gap matters when a front office starts weighing roles and contract priorities. Chicago could still add a veteran outfielder on a short-term deal, but the way the roster has settled leaves Happ facing a decision point the Cubs have not really had to make before. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Closing In On A Dansby Swanson Boost At Perfect Time
Dansby Swansons oblique strain has been one of the bigger lineup setbacks for the Cubs since he went down on Aug. 16, especially because the shortstop was initially expected to miss four to six weeks. Chicago has had to keep moving without one of its steadier everyday players while trying to stay on track in a tight postseason race, and the timing of his absence has only added to the pressure on a club already trying to piece together its roster.
Recent signs point toward a possible ramp-up soon, with Swanson potentially beginning a rehab assignment or even returning to game action as early as next week. For the Cubs, the appeal is obvious: getting a defensive anchor and familiar bat back would help at exactly the moment the bullpen has become a concern, and any extra stability in the final stretch could matter a great deal as October draws closer. [Read more 🡒]