The Chicago Cubs didn’t just sign Alex Bregman this offseason-they made a statement. A long-term deal with no opt-outs and a full no-trade clause?
That’s not the kind of contract you hand out if you’re looking to pinch pennies or hit the brakes on contention. And yet, with Bregman’s signing pushing the Cubs right up to the first Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold, there’s been some chatter about whether that means Nico Hoerner could be on the move to clear payroll.
Let’s take a closer look at why that scenario doesn’t really hold water.
Hoerner is entering the final year of his deal, set to earn $12 million before hitting free agency. On paper, moving him would give the Cubs some breathing room under the CBT.
But in practice? That would be a sharp left turn from everything the front office has signaled over the past month.
Remember, this is a team that just traded its top prospect, Owen Caissie, for Edward Cabrera-a clear win-now move. This is a team that locked in Bregman for the long haul.
These aren’t the actions of a club trying to duck under the tax line. These are the moves of a front office that believes its window to contend is wide open-and they’re not afraid to spend to make the most of it.
That’s why Cubs GM Carter Hawkins’ recent comments are so important. He confirmed that paying the luxury tax in 2026 is “less of a consideration” now that the team sees itself as a legitimate contender. That’s a key shift from how the Cubs operated last year, when they were far more cautious with payroll and treated the first CBT threshold like a hard cap.
Sure, in hindsight, it’s fair to question whether that conservative approach made sense in 2025-especially after the Cubs went out and acquired one year of Kyle Tucker. That was a move that screamed “all-in,” but the front office still trimmed payroll and stayed under the tax line.
This year, though, it looks like they’ve learned from that experience. The leash is off.
And that brings us back to Hoerner. He was arguably the Cubs’ best player in 2025, a Gold Glove second baseman who brings consistency, leadership, and versatility to the infield.
Trading him now, just to save money? That would send the exact opposite message of everything the Cubs have done this offseason.
Teams will still call. That’s the nature of the business. But unless someone comes in with a truly overwhelming offer-which seems unlikely given how highly the Cubs value Hoerner-it’s hard to see him going anywhere.
There’s also a financial angle here that works in the Cubs’ favor. With their current payroll sitting just under the $244 million mark, they’ve got about $23 million in space before hitting the next CBT tier at $264 million.
That matters because the penalties for being over the first threshold are the same whether you’re at $245 million or $263 million. In other words, if you’re going to pay the tax, you might as well make it count.
So don’t be surprised if the Cubs still have a move or two in the chamber this offseason-or at the very least, leave themselves room to be aggressive at the trade deadline. They’ve built a roster that’s ready to compete now, and their financial posture reflects that.
The bottom line? Hoerner isn’t just a valuable piece of the puzzle-he’s part of the foundation. And based on everything we’ve seen and heard from the Cubs this winter, he’s not going anywhere.