The Cubs might be done adding to their 2026 roster, but they’re clearly not done planning for the future. On the heels of a relatively quiet stretch, Chicago made a forward-thinking move by locking in veteran reliever Shelby Miller to a multi-year major league deal - a signing that’s all about 2027.
Let’s be clear: Miller won’t be throwing a single pitch this season. He’s still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in October. At 35, and coming off another major arm procedure, this is a bet on what he might be able to bring a year from now - not what he offers today.
Still, there’s a reason the Cubs are willing to take that chance.
Miller’s career has been anything but linear. Cubs fans may remember his brief (and forgettable) appearance with the team back in 2021, or his more infamous role as the centerpiece in the Diamondbacks’ trade for Dansby Swanson in 2015.
Most recently, he ended the 2025 season with the rival Brewers, even facing the Cubs twice in August. But despite the twists and turns, what keeps Miller relevant is his ability to miss bats - and miss them in bunches.
When healthy, Miller has the kind of swing-and-miss arsenal that plays in any bullpen. During the first half of 2025 with Arizona, he was lights out: a 1.98 ERA over 36 1/3 innings, backed by elite peripherals. His chase rate (35.8%), whiff rate (31.7%), and strikeout rate (29.0%) were all well above the 80th percentile - numbers that jump off the page for any reliever, especially one with his velocity.
And that’s another key piece: Miller wasn’t just fooling hitters with movement or deception. His four-seamer averaged over 95 mph last year - a notable uptick from previous seasons.
That’s not just respectable for a reliever in his mid-30s; it’s upper-tier. Now, whether that velocity sticks post-surgery is a fair question.
But even if he loses a tick or two, he’ll still be one of the harder throwers in the Cubs’ bullpen.
Of course, there are red flags. Miller has topped 50 innings in a season just once since 2016.
The injury history is long, and the age curve is real. He’ll be 36 by the time he’s ready to return, and there’s no guarantee the stuff will still be there.
But this isn’t a high-stakes gamble. According to reports, the Cubs are only committing around $2.5 million guaranteed - a modest investment for a potential late-inning weapon.
In a way, this signing mirrors other recent moves by the front office. Deals for Phil Maton and Jacob Webb (who has a club option for 2027) were also about building a more stable, sustainable bullpen core beyond just this season.
With Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Aaron Civale all departing in free agency, the Cubs needed to start sketching out a new relief blueprint. Miller’s deal helps do just that.
Best-case scenario? He returns to form and gives the Cubs a high-leverage arm with swing-and-miss stuff and veteran poise.
Worst-case? He doesn’t make it back, and the financial hit is minimal.
That’s the kind of calculated risk that smart front offices take - especially when trying to build a bullpen that can hold up over a 162-game grind.
So while Shelby Miller won’t be part of the 2026 story, his signing is a signal that the Cubs are thinking ahead. And if his arm bounces back the way they hope, this could end up being one of those quiet offseason moves that pays big dividends a year down the road.