The Cubs are heading into their three-game set with the Tigers with a little momentum and a few more questions than they’d like on the mound.
Sunday’s 10-1 win over the Twins gave Chicago its first series victory of the second half, and it also nudged the club within 6.0 games of the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. The Cubs have also stretched their cushion to 4.5 games over both the Cardinals and Pirates. In the Wild Card picture, they’d be sitting in the top spot if the season ended today, ahead of the Phillies and Cardinals.
That’s a solid place to be in mid-July. It’s also a reminder that nothing is close to settled yet.
Now comes a Tigers team that looked like a soft landing on paper, but hasn’t played like one lately. Detroit is still a 46-win club sitting fourth in its division, yet it has gone 7-3 over its last 10 games and won four of its last five series.
That run has at least opened the door to some questions about whether the Tigers will really sell at the deadline. Tarik Skubal, with his 2.83 ERA, remains one of the biggest names on the market, and the Cubs have been linked to him as well.
If Chicago wants to keep pushing Detroit in that direction, this is the kind of series where it can matter. Three losses at Wrigley would carry real weight for a team already trying to figure out its deadline path.
Craig Counsell has now lined up his starters for the series, according to Jeff Agrest of the Sun-Times, and the first name on the list is one that hasn’t taken the mound since March: Jameson Taillon.
Taillon’s return is a notable one for a Cubs rotation that needs every healthy arm it can get. He’s a veteran starter with plenty of experience, and when he’s on, he can be exactly the kind of steady presence Chicago needs - limiting walks, getting quick outs, and keeping the game under control.
But the numbers before his injury were rough. Taillon owns a 5.19 ERA across 13 starts, and the damage has come in the form of both shaky command and too many mistakes over the plate. Opponents have hit 20 home runs off him this season, tied for the sixth-most in baseball despite the missed time.
His last appearance came on June 7, when a hamstring injury knocked him out after just 1.0 innings. He allowed two walks and an earned run in that outing. The Cubs will be hoping the time away has helped him reset and regain some feel, because if he can settle in over the next couple of months, he could become a real x-factor for this battered staff.
Taillon’s return probably pushes Javier Assad out of the rotation. What Chicago does next with Assad isn’t clear yet. He could stay in the bullpen as a long relief option, or he could head back to Iowa and remain ready in case the rotation takes another hit.
The second starter in the series is David Peterson, and his Cubs tenure has already been a mixed bag. Chicago acquired him from the Mets after his early-season struggles, and on paper he fits what the organization likes: a ground-ball pitcher with a defense behind him that can turn those balls into outs.
The results, though, have swung wildly. Peterson held the Brewers to 2 earned runs in his first outing, then got tagged for 10 earned runs by the Cardinals in just 3.2 innings.
He bounced back against the Orioles by allowing only one run, but he also walked four batters. That leaves plenty of uncertainty heading into this matchup, especially with the Tigers carrying the lowest ground ball rate in baseball.
Colin Rea is expected to handle the finale, and he’s been one of the more reliable options Chicago has had lately outside of Shota Imanaga. His 4.74 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but in a rotation ravaged by injuries, he’s been more than useful.
Rea has given up 3 earned runs twice in his last five starts, and both of those outings came in his last two appearances. Even so, that’s the kind of stability the Cubs can work with, particularly if he keeps giving them 5.0-plus innings.
The bullpen will still be a major factor across the series. All three starters have been pulled early at times, so Chicago will need at least one of Taillon or Peterson to provide enough length to ease the load on Rea in the finale.
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The leagues balanced schedule is part of why the matchup lands the way it does, since every club now faces every other team at least once during the season. For Cubs fans, though, the bigger reaction may be less about the calendar mechanics and more about what kind of opener they were hoping for, with the schedule offering a different kind of start than the one many around Wrigley would have preferred. [Read more 🡒]