The Cubs can dream about Tarik Skubal all they want. They just can’t realistically pay for him.
That’s the blunt takeaway after Jeff Passan’s latest read on where the superstar left-hander is headed in free agency. Passan said Skubal could be looking at a deal that lands near $50 million per season, and the scale of that number says plenty on its own.
Skubal turns 30 in November, and Passan pointed out that no pitcher age 30 or older has ever topped Stephen Strasburg’s $245 million free-agent deal. If there’s no salary cap, Passan added, Skubal “could get double that.”
For the Cubs, that’s where the conversation should end. However appealing Skubal looked as a trade target at the deadline, the price tag made him more theory than reality for Chicago.
The same logic applies now, only louder. A 30-year-old starter at that kind of cost is not the sort of move the Cubs are going to make.
That means the idea of Skubal anchoring the rotation at Wrigley should be shelved.
There is one wrinkle worth watching: the looming lockout. Some might hope that uncertainty could trim Skubal’s market.
Passan doesn’t sound like he expects that to happen. He noted the prevailing belief around the league is that Skubal will sign before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1, which would lock in a record-setting contract before the next round of labor chaos ever arrives.
So if the Cubs are going to upgrade the rotation, they’ll have to do it somewhere other than the Skubal lane. The encouraging part is that the market does offer alternatives. Passan’s list of available starters includes Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta, Shane Bieber and Sonny Gray, with more arms sitting below that tier.
Chicago may not be able to chase the biggest name on the board, but it can still find help. And it needs to, because the rotation has already forced the front office to make major changes after injuries and ineffectiveness sent the group into a scramble before the deadline. With an early playoff exit only adding to the scrutiny, the Cubs will again be judged on whether they can build a pitching staff worthy of the offense around it.
Skubal would have been the cleanest answer. He just doesn’t look like a realistic one.
In Other News...
Cubs Lose Another Pitching Depth Option After Brief Uneven Stint
Corbin Martin is one of six minor league players who have elected free agency after finishing the season on outright assignments, a move that lets them reach the market earlier than the usual major league free-agent timeline. For the Cubs, it means another pitching depth name is on the move after a brief, uneven stint in the organization, a familiar kind of churn at this time of year as clubs sort through the back end of the roster.
Martin had been part of a group that included players with recent designation-for-assignment history and varying minor league resumes, underscoring how quickly those depth pieces can cycle through an organization. For Chicago, the timing matters because these are the kinds of arms teams often hope to keep around as insurance, but once a player chooses free agency, the Cubs have to look elsewhere for that same low-cost rotation and bullpen cushion. [Read more 🡒]
Ian Happ Just Sounded Like A Cub Saying Goodbye
Ian Happs recent comments carried the kind of weight that gets attention in Chicago, because they sounded like a player who understands the business side of the game and what free agency can mean for a longtime Cub. He spoke with appreciation for his time in the organization while also acknowledging that his run with the team may be nearing its end, which is not usually the tone of a player headed into an offseason of uncertainty.
Happ is set to hit free agency this winter, and there has been at least some indication he could be open to a team-friendly arrangement if it keeps him on the North Side. The Cubs, for their part, have had interest in bringing him back and could envision a platoon role, which leaves just enough room for a return, even if the conversation around it already feels a little like a goodbye. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Face One Offseason Reset That Will Define Their Next Contender
The Cubs came up short of their expectations and are heading into the winter with a familiar priority at the top of the list: pitching. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made clear that the staff will be the main offseason focus, with the club weighing questions about which pitchers will be back and whether outside help in free agency can steady things for next year.
Chicago is also looking more broadly at how to tighten up the roster for the 2027 season, with the bullpen and catcher spots among the areas under review. It is the kind of reset that can shape a contenders timeline, and for the Cubs, the next few months may say as much about where theyre headed as the season they just left behind. [Read more 🡒]