The Cubs are heading into another winter with pitching high on the to-do list, and the picture only gets messier when you look ahead to what comes after 2026. Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, David Peterson, Aaron Civale and Colin Rea are all set to hit free agency, which gives Jed Hoyer a chance to shop at the top of the market. But another trade swing can’t be ruled out, either, especially after last winter’s decision to pass on pricey free-agent options and land Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins instead.
That’s where Jonah Tong enters the conversation.
Tong, who just delivered the best start of his MLB career against the Orioles at Citi Field, is still trying to turn his big-league promise into something more stable. The Mets have plenty to sort through with him before making any long-term call, and how he finishes the 2026 season could shape whether David Stearns and the front office view him as part of the future or as a chip to move this winter.
The talent is obvious. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both had him ranked among the top 50 prospects entering the year, and the numbers he put up in the minors last season showed why.
But that success has not carried over in New York. In just 39 2/3 innings at the major-league level, the 23-year-old owns a 5.45 ERA and a 1.462 WHIP.
Tong is only one year removed from a 1.59 ERA in 20 starts at Triple-A, but this season has been a step backward because of control problems tied to mechanical changes he made in the spring. The next priority, whether he stays with the Mets or ends up somewhere else, is getting him back to the version of himself that dominated in 2025.
For the Cubs, the attraction is clear. They need high-upside arms, and a pitcher with Tong’s ceiling fits that brief.
But this is not the kind of name the Mets are likely to give away. At 23, with enough upside to still project as a top-of-the-rotation arm if the mechanics come back, Tong would command a serious return.
A deal would likely require a top-50 prospect going to Queens, which for Chicago means Josiah Hartshorn. That’s a steep price, and one the Cubs would have to think hard about given what Hartshorn has done across multiple minor-league levels this year.
Chicago had hoped Cabrera would be the trade that really landed. Instead, it has been a disappointment.
So if Hoyer goes back to the Mets again, the question is whether this time the price is worth paying. One thing looks certain: prying Tong loose would hurt.
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