Before the 2025 season, the Cubs had a chance to land Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins, but Jed Hoyer’s club backed away after medical concerns surfaced. That hesitation made sense at the time. Luzardo had already missed time in 2024 because of an elbow issue and a stress reaction in his back, and his season ended in late June.
Miami moved on and sent Luzardo to the Phillies instead. Since then, the left-hander has turned into exactly the kind of pitcher the Cubs were hoping to acquire: durable, effective, and right at the front of a contender’s rotation. Over the last two years, he has worked more than 360 innings with a 3.40 ERA and 2.83 FIP for Philadelphia, and this season brought the first All-Star nod of his career.
The Phillies doubled down in March, signing Luzardo to a five-year, $135 million extension that keeps him under contract through the 2031 season. The 28-year-old is also putting together the best year of his eight-year MLB career, with more than one-third of his career WAR coming in the 2026 season.
Chicago eventually tried to solve its rotation issues by going back to Miami, this time sending Owen Caissie to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera last winter. That deal has not gone the way the Cubs wanted. Cabrera has a -1.2 bWAR and a 5.68 ERA in 15 starts, and multiple IL stints have only made the situation worse.
At best, Cabrera might return in time to help a taxed bullpen in the final weeks of the season. He remains under team control for two more years, so the Cubs still have reason to hope he can become a meaningful piece, but his first stretch in Chicago has been well below expectations in 2026.
If the Cubs and Phillies end up meeting in October while fighting for the top wild-card spot, Chicago’s lineup could wind up staring down Luzardo in a playoff setting. Cabrera, meanwhile, does not look like he’ll be much of a factor. The Cubs’ rotation has been pieced together with trade deadline additions Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman.
Looking back is always simpler than living through the decision, but the larger issue remains: Chicago has struggled to develop pitching internally, and its long-term pitching bets through trades have not delivered nearly enough. That combination could end up costing them.
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