The Chicago Cubs have already been linked to Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan if he ends up on the market this offseason, and it won’t be long before Jarren Duran gets pulled into the same conversation.
That makes sense on the surface. The Cubs need outfield help, and the Red Sox have spent the past year trying to sort through a crowded mix.
Duran has been part of those rumors before, too. He came up in trade talks with the Houston Astros last offseason, and there was a real sense Boston might have moved him at the deadline if not for the late-season surge that rescued their year.
Duran, though, was not part of that turnaround.
In 2026, the 30-year-old outfielder had a rough season at the plate, hitting .207/.266/.361. He still managed 20 home runs, but the low on-base percentage dragged his overall value down hard, and his wRC+ finished at 69. Put another way, he was Ian Happ except for not having the walks to hold up his offensive value.
Even with that kind of year, MLB Trade Rumors projected Duran to make $11.1 million in his third year of arbitration. That would be a big jump from the $7.7 million he earned from the Red Sox in 2026, and it puts Boston in a tough spot.
A non-tender is on the table. Before that happens, the Red Sox will almost certainly try to find a trade partner. Duran still has one more season of control after the 2027 season, but that’s a lot less attractive now that his performance has slipped.
The problem for the Cubs is simple: this shouldn’t be their bailout.
Duran looked like he was breaking into another level in 2024, when he hit 21 home runs and stole 34 bases. Since then, the production has backed up. Boston may be forced to shop him for pennies on the dollar, but Chicago doesn’t need to be the team that takes on the risk.
If the Cubs are trying to solve their outfield situation, the cleaner path is to bring Ian Happ back on a discounted deal or via the qualifying offer. Swapping Happ for Duran wouldn’t improve the offense, and it would also mean taking a defensive hit in left field.
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