The Cubs got a live reminder of how fragile prospect plans can be this weekend, and it came from a familiar face.
Before Chicago opened its series against the Miami Marlins, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Pedro Ramirez, Matt Shaw and BJ Murray Jr. had a chance to reconnect with former Iowa Cubs teammate Owen Caissie. Caissie was in the ballpark despite dealing with recent neck spasms, and he still managed a pinch-hit appearance Friday against his old club. The former Cubs top prospect has settled into regular right-field work with Miami after being included in the Edward Cabrera trade, but his first full season has been rough.
Through 312 plate appearances entering Sunday’s series finale, Caissie was sitting at .220/.285/.412 with an 88 wRC+. The power has shown up some - he had 13 home runs - but the swing-and-miss has been brutal.
His strikeout rate was 37.2 percent, with a 7.7 percent walk rate, and among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, nobody had struck out more often. His minus-7 outs above average also pointed to shaky defensive value.
That’s the cautionary piece for the Cubs as the offseason approaches. Caissie was once part of the conversation about replacing Kyle Tucker’s production after the star right fielder left in free agency, but this is exactly the kind of reminder teams need to keep in mind: prospects are not sure things.
Some burst through right away. Others take a long time.
Plenty never quite arrive. For a club trying to stay competitive without the kind of depth the Dodgers can lean on, banking too heavily on any one prospect is a gamble.
Chicago already showed some of that thinking in the Cabrera deal. Rather than treating Caissie as a pillar to protect, the Cubs chose controllable major league help for a team on the rise.
They later spent to bring in Alex Bregman, and after a slow start, he has become the veteran presence the lineup needed. That move also helped the rest of the roster, giving Matt Shaw a utility role and easing some of the pressure on Moises Ballesteros at designated hitter.
This winter brings a tougher version of that same decision. The Cubs are facing free agency for both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, which raises the stakes considerably. Pitching will be the main focus because so many starters are in walk years, but the offense can’t be ignored when two bats with career wRC+ marks of 116 and 128 are potentially on the way out.
There will be a temptation to get creative and cheaper - maybe move Shaw to right field and patch the rest together until a prospect is ready. The farm system does have outfield depth, with three of the Cubs’ top five MLB Pipeline prospects playing the position, including No. 1 overall prospect Josiah Hartshorn.
The 19-year-old has put together a .298/.406/.562 line at High-A and became the first teenage Cubs minor leaguer to top 20 homers since Corey Patterson in 1999. He also recently reached 100 RBI.
But even with that kind of season, Hartshorn is still a long way from Chicago, and there’s no reason to assume any of the Cubs’ top outfield prospects will arrive ready to hit. None of them are even at Triple-A yet.
That’s why the Cubs need to keep building like a team trying to win now, not like one waiting on tomorrow. They can address the rotation and still bring back an offensive piece like Suzuki, even if it costs plenty. And if those prospects eventually become trade chips to solve other needs, that’s part of the equation too.
Caissie’s season doesn’t settle the argument by itself. But it does underline the lesson the Cubs already seemed to understand: immediate impact matters, and counting on prospects to solve everything is a dangerous way to run a contender.
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Cubs Catching Depth Suddenly Has Another Name To Watch
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Bethancourt does have the option to turn down the assignment and head back to free agency, though no decision has been announced yet. For a Cubs organization that keeps an eye on every possible catching fit, a veteran with parts of eight major league seasons on his rsum is the kind of player who can quietly stay on the radar until the next roster opening appears. [Read more 🡒]