The Cubs’ 2026 outlook looks strong enough to fuel real optimism, but the bigger question hanging over the organization is what happens after that - and whether Seiya Suzuki is part of the answer.
Chicago still has work to do if it wants to catch the Brewers in the NL Central, but the club is sitting on the best offense and defense in baseball, and its pitching staff has taken a major step forward since the trade deadline. More help is expected back from the injured list, too, which only adds to the sense that this team could be a problem for anyone in October.
The longer view is where things get trickier. The Cubs were wise to extend Nico Hoerner earlier this year, but they’re also staring at a wave of free agency that could strip away a big chunk of the roster.
Ian Happ, Carson Kelly, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman are all on that list, and none of those departures would be small. Still, Suzuki stands out as the most important name of all.
He was unexpectedly part of trade chatter earlier this summer, and the Cubs ultimately kept him. That decision mattered, because Suzuki has been one of the most reliable hitters in the sport.
He ranks 22nd among MLB hitters this year in wRC+, and over the last four seasons his 130 wRC+ is tied with Pete Alonso and Rafael Devers. Add in the defensive gains he’s made this year, and it gets harder to imagine Chicago being better off with him somewhere else.
That said, every front office has to think ahead, and the Cubs’ biggest offseason need is still obvious: pitching. Their rotation picture for next year looks deeper on paper than it does in reality.
Justin Steele will be returning after not having started a game in nearly two years. Ben Brown has yet to make even 10 regular-season starts at the big league level because of injuries.
Edward Cabrera has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness all year. Cade Horton might not pitch at all, and Braxton Garrett, a deadline pickup, is more of a roll of the dice than a sure thing.
Along with Javier Assad and Colin Rea, that group makes up the Cubs’ entire rotation mix heading into 2027. If Chicago wants enough starting pitching to survive next season, it’s going to need multiple additions there, and those moves won’t come cheap. That’s been the argument from a lot of observers, including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma: the Cubs won’t spend enough to keep Suzuki if they also have to pour money into the rotation.
But the financial picture might not be as tight as that sounds. The Cubs have more than $120 million coming off the books this offseason.
Yes, some of that will go to raises for Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong as their extensions kick in, along with arbitration-type salaries for players like Michael Busch. Even so, there should still be room to bring Suzuki back and address the pitching staff.
That plan gets tougher only if Chicago decides to chase an ace in the Tarik Skubal mold. But the Cubs’ recent behavior suggests that isn’t the route they’re likely to take.
They passed on Dylan Cease and Max Fried in recent years, which points toward a different kind of approach - middle-tier free agents and trade additions, not the top of the market. If that remains the strategy, there’s no reason they couldn’t keep Suzuki and still upgrade the rotation.
There’s one more wrinkle, though: other position-player decisions could change the math. Even there, the Cubs appear to have some flexibility. Owen Ayers looks close to being the clear successor to Carson Kelly behind the plate, and if Ian Happ has a down year, it becomes easier to imagine Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez collectively covering that production than replacing Suzuki’s bat.
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