The Cubs’ margin for error in the NL Wild Card race is shrinking, but one thing still works in their favor: they’ve already done a lot of the hard work.
Chicago enters the stretch run in a tight fight with the Phillies for the No. 1 Wild Card spot, and Philadelphia now holds a half-game edge after its 1-0 win over the Braves.
That race matters because the winner gets to host the Wild Card series, while the loser heads on the road. For the Cubs, that would mean a trip to Philadelphia.
For the Phillies, it would mean coming to Wrigley.
That home-field edge was no small thing for Chicago last year, when the Cubs beat the Padres in three games in front of a loud Wrigley Field crowd. They’d love to recreate that setup this October, but the path is getting narrower by the day.
The Brewers have effectively pushed the Cubs out of the NL Central picture after Chicago had a real shot there a few weeks ago. A split series and a recent loss in the latest three-game set made that chase feel out of reach. Now the focus is squarely on holding off the teams behind them and trying to climb back into the top Wild Card slot.
The good news for the Cubs is that the postseason itself looks nearly locked in. Fangraphs gives them a 99.0 percent chance to clinch, and Craig Counsell’s club still has some favorable series left with the Pirates, Reds, and Marlins.
Even better, Chicago has already secured key tiebreakers that could matter in a crowded finish.
Against the Phillies, the Cubs finished with a 6-1 regular-season record, which means Philadelphia would need to end up with one more win to pass them for the top Wild Card seed. All seven of those games came in April, when the Phillies were off to a slower start, but the result still counts - and it could loom large if the teams are separated by the slimmest of margins.
Chicago has also clinched tiebreakers over both the Diamondbacks and Padres. The Cubs lost their last two games against Arizona just weeks ago, but they had already won the series opener and swept the Diamondbacks earlier in the season. Against San Diego, they went 5-1, including a sweep in one of the two series.
That gives the Cubs some breathing room if the race tightens further. Arizona and San Diego are still within range, with no more than 4.5 games separating the clubs, so nothing is completely settled yet. But if any ties come into play, Chicago has put itself in position to come out ahead.
For now, the goal remains simple: grab the top Wild Card spot outright and make sure October starts at the Friendly Confines. The closer the calendar gets to the postseason, the more those early-season wins start to matter.
In Other News...
Cubs Catching Depth Suddenly Has Another Name To Watch
The Cubs have spent much of the season sorting through their catching depth, and another veteran option has quietly entered the mix on the market. Christian Bethancourt cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Indianapolis by the Pirates after being designated for assignment in September, a move that came without him appearing in a game for Pittsburgh after his roster addition.
Bethancourt now has the choice to accept the assignment or test free agency, and no decision has been announced yet. For a club like the Cubs, always looking to shore up organizational depth behind the plate, a player with parts of eight major league seasons on his rsum is the sort of name that at least deserves a look while the winter roster picture continues to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Former Cubs Arm Just Became A Bullpen Option Chicago Can't Ignore
The Rays had to make a roster move after Taylor Walls went down, and the ripple effect reached a familiar name for Cubs fans. Tampa Bay selected Nick Madrigals contract from Triple-A to add infield depth, then cleared space on the 40-man by designating Hunter Bigge for assignment. For Chicago, the transaction is worth watching because Bigge was once in the Cubs organization and now finds himself available at a time when bullpen help is always in demand.
Bigges path has been slowed by injuries, and his season has not gone the way he or the Rays wanted. Even so, a right-hander with previous organizational ties and open availability can quickly become the kind of arm a club checks on, especially one looking for usable relief depth without spending much. Whether the Cubs make a move is still unresolved, but the opportunity is there for a team that knows how thin the relief market can get. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Bullpen Suddenly Has A Late Season Question Cubs Will Notice
The Brewers had to shuffle their bullpen mix after placing right-hander Grant Anderson on the 15-day injured list with right biceps inflammation, a setback that arrives at a point in the season when every late-inning arm matters. To fill the spot, Milwaukee called up right-hander Brandon Sproat from Triple-A Nashville, giving the club another option while it waits out Andersons recovery.
Pat Murphy said there is no structural damage, and Anderson is expected to be back after Sept. 22, which keeps the door open for a postseason return. For the Cubs, who are watching every piece of the division race, it is a small but meaningful development because Milwaukees bullpen depth has been one of the reasons the Brewers have been so hard to shake. [Read more 🡒]