The Cubs don’t usually love paying the qualifying-offer tax, and there’s a real reason for that hesitation. Under the current rules, with Chicago’s payroll already above the first luxury-tax line in 2026, signing a qualifying-offer free agent would cost them their second- and fifth-highest draft picks plus $1 million in international bonus pool money.
That’s not a small price. And if the CBA changes this offseason, the hit could get even uglier.
Still, this is not the year to play it safe.
Chicago is coming off a frustrating 2026 season, one in which the gap to Milwaukee only grew wider. The Brewers won the World Series while the Cubs never even got a win in the Wild Card round. This is a team built to contend now, and the only realistic way to patch the holes in a pitching staff full of questions is to step outside its comfort zone.
There are plenty of free agents out there without a qualifying offer attached - Freddy Peralta, Michael King, and, dare I say it, Tarik Skubal among them - but the Cubs can’t afford to shut themselves off from quality just because of the penalty. Among the eight players who received qualifying offers, three stand out as names Chicago should still be seriously weighing.
Adrian Morejon is the one worth obsessing over.
The Padres lefty has become one of the cleanest bullpen fits imaginable for the Cubs. Since he really found his footing in 2024, he owns a 2.58 ERA and 2.49 FIP, and he just finished a monster season with a 30.4% strikeout rate and a ridiculous 58% ground-ball rate across a career-high 86 innings.
That checks a lot of boxes for Chicago: more whiffs, more grounders, less hard contact. Statcast says he’s one of the best in baseball at limiting damage when hitters do make contact.
He won’t come cheap. Estimates range from three years and $42 million all the way up to five years and $90 million.
But the Cubs may have never been better positioned to make a big bullpen investment. Daniel Palencia, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Jacob Webb give them a locked-in back end, while Phil Maton and Shelby Miller are returning from injuries and Ryan Rolison is back in the fold.
Add one dominant arm to that group, and the whole unit looks a lot more dangerous.
There’s also a more creative angle with Morejon: starting pitching. Rumblings have suggested that possibility, and it would give the Cubs a high-upside rotation option in a market that needs one. It would be risky, but no one else available combines youth and stuff quite like him.
If Morejon gets too expensive, David Bednar is another name that fits the bill.
He’s been on the Cubs’ radar for a while, and after a strong season and a half with the Yankees, the fit looks even better. Following a down 2024, Bednar rebounded in a big way between Pittsburgh and New York, piling up 62 saves over 132 innings with a 2.39 ERA and 2.40 FIP since the start of 2025. His strikeout rate dipped to 27.1% this season, but he made up for it with a 51.4% ground-ball rate.
Like Morejon, Bednar would deepen the bullpen and let Chicago push some of its current late-inning options down a notch. He brings more ninth-inning experience, too.
The price tag is steep: projections point to something close to Devin Williams’ three years and $51 million from last year, while MLB Trade Rumors has him as high as four years and $68 million. That’s a lot to spend, and the Yankees aren’t likely to let him walk without a fight.
But for a pitcher who’s been one of the game’s steadiest closers for five of the past six seasons, it makes sense.
Trevor Rogers is the starter in this group, and he’s the only one who received a qualifying offer on the mound.
His 2026 with the Orioles looked underwhelming at first glance - a 4.03 ERA over 169 2/3 innings - but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His 3.60 expected ERA and 3.45 FIP point to some bad luck for the left-hander, who also fits what the Cubs need in a rotation arm. Before this past season, his ground-ball rate had never fallen below 46%, and over the last two years he’s done a strong job limiting walks while missing bats.
The contract projections are hefty, ranging from four years and $76 million to five years and $115 million. Even so, Rogers looks like the kind of solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter Chicago should be considering.
The Cubs’ Gold Glove-caliber infield defense could help him if he gets back to forcing more ground balls, and with the rotation needs they have, he has to be on their radar. The only real question is whether the front office values him enough to pay the qualifying-offer cost.
In Other News...
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Crow-Armstrong appears likely to be part of that next wave, but Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki may be headed toward free agency by then, which puts some pressure on the organization to plan early. Two internal names to watch are Josiah Hartshorn and James Triantos, both of whom offer the kind of versatility teams value when roster construction gets tight, with Hartshorns defensive flexibility and recent jump to Double-A standing out and Triantos bringing minor league production plus the ability to move around the diamond. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Outfield Reality Is Starting To Crush The Dream Options
The Cubs offseason priorities are coming into focus, and the outfield market is starting to look a lot less glamorous than some fans might have hoped. Chicago is expected to spend most of its energy on pitching in free agency, while the idea of swinging a blockbuster deal for a superstar outfielder has quickly drifted into the background.
Bryce Harper and Ronald Acua Jr. are the kind of names that can ignite a winter, but the reality around both makes those dreams feel remote. Harpers contract is a major obstacle, and Acuas trade status is uncertain enough to make a deal unlikely, which leaves the Cubs pointing toward shorter commitments for veteran hitters and more affordable outfield help on the open market. [Read more 🡒]