Sandy Alcantara’s story is one baseball fans know well by now - a dominant right-hander who climbed the mountain, took home the NL Cy Young in 2022, and then saw everything hit pause with Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. But in 2025, Alcantara made his return, and while it wasn’t all smooth sailing, the second half of the year gave us a clear reminder of what he’s capable of when he’s right.
Let’s break it down.
The Comeback Trail
Coming off Tommy John surgery, pitchers typically need time to recalibrate - not just physically, but in terms of command, confidence, and feel for their full arsenal. Alcantara’s 2025 season followed that familiar arc.
The first half was, frankly, rough: a 7.22 ERA and 1.484 WHIP across 18 starts. That’s not the version of Alcantara the Marlins - or anyone - were used to seeing.
But here’s where it gets interesting. As the season wore on, the rust started to fall away.
In the second half, Alcantara made 13 starts and posted a 3.33 ERA with a 1.040 WHIP. That’s a massive improvement - not just in surface stats, but in the way he pitched.
He looked more in control, more confident, and more like the guy who once shut down lineups with ease.
His strikeout rate hasn’t fully bounced back to pre-surgery levels, which isn’t uncommon in the first year back. But his walk rate held steady, and perhaps most importantly, his velocity stayed right in line with where it was before the injury.
That’s a big deal. A pitcher’s velocity is often the last thing to return after elbow surgery - or in some cases, it never fully does.
For Alcantara, maintaining that heat on his fastball is a strong indicator that his arm strength is intact and his mechanics are working.
A Shift in Approach
There was one noticeable change in Alcantara’s pitch mix: he leaned more on his curveball in 2025. That’s not surprising.
Post-TJS pitchers often adjust their repertoire, sometimes to ease strain on the elbow, sometimes to keep hitters guessing while they regain command of other pitches. The uptick in curveball usage didn’t come at the expense of velocity - his peak fastball velocity remained consistent with his 2023 numbers - but it did reflect a more nuanced approach to sequencing.
This isn’t just about throwing hard anymore. It’s about evolving.
What Comes Next?
Alcantara turned 30 in September, and he’s under contract for $17.3 million in 2026. There’s also a team option for 2027 at $21 million, with a $2 million buyout. For a pitcher who’s shown he can still flash top-tier form - and who’s trending upward as he gets further removed from surgery - that’s a very manageable deal.
If you’re a team looking for a frontline starter, Alcantara presents a compelling case. The risk is there, sure - Tommy John recovery isn’t linear, and there’s no guarantee he’ll return to full Cy Young form.
But the second-half numbers in 2025 suggest he’s getting close. And if he does get all the way back?
That $21 million option for 2027 could look like a bargain.
Bottom line: Alcantara’s comeback season wasn’t perfect, but it was promising. He’s not just trying to return to who he was - he’s evolving into who he can be next. And for teams in need of a high-upside arm, he might just be one of the most intriguing trade chips on the market.