The Cubs’ pitching search this winter is shaping up to be very specific. They need arms who can keep the ball on the ground, miss bats, and ideally bring some velocity along with them - something Chicago has been short on in recent years.
That profile makes Baltimore Orioles starter Trevor Rogers an obvious name to watch. He’s a free agent, and on paper, he lines up neatly with what the Cubs appear to be hunting for.
Rogers’ 2025 season with Baltimore was the kind that turns heads fast. He put up a 1.81 ERA over 18 starts, and that set the stage for bigger expectations in 2026.
Instead, he came back down to earth. The 28-year-old logged a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts, though the numbers underneath it suggest he was better than that mark on the surface.
His FIP sat at 3.45, he struck out more than 22% of the hitters he faced, and he walked fewer than 6%.
The ground-ball piece is where Rogers really fits the Cubs’ mold, even if 2026 didn’t show it as clearly. His groundball rate was 38.3% last season, but it had been above 46% in each of the three seasons before that.
Chicago’s rotation situation only adds to the intrigue. Every starter on the roster was heading for free agency at the end of the season, leaving the Cubs in a spot where they may need to rebuild much of the rotation from the outside.
Justin Steele and Edward Cabrera would likely be expected to take on spots in the mix, but most of the 2027 rotation could come from outside the organization. A return from someone like Clay Holmes or David Peterson remains possible, too.
Still, the Cubs are expected to explore plenty of options in free agency, and Rogers should be on that list. The catch is Baltimore may complicate things by extending him a qualifying offer. With the Orioles also needing pitching, that move would make plenty of sense, and it could force Chicago to think carefully before jumping in.
The Cubs weren’t shy about free agents tied to qualifying offers last winter, but this offseason could be different. The penalties for signing one of those players may be more severe under the new CBA, which could make Rogers a trickier fit than his stuff and profile suggest.
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