The Cubs and Padres are heading into the NL Wild Card Series with a lot of familiar faces and a few new wrinkles, but the numbers still paint a pretty clear picture of where each club has the edge.
Chicago took five of six from San Diego in the regular season, and the Cubs did plenty of damage while doing it. Across those six games, they piled up 55 runs, including that 23-3 blowout at Wrigley Field on July 1, when they matched the franchise record with eight home runs in a game. That kind of firepower has been the Cubs’ calling card all season, and it’s why they enter the series with the best overall offense in baseball in 2026.
Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at the center of it. The likely NL MVP posted a .280/.372/.570 line with a .942 OPS and tied for the MLB home run lead with 45. He also looked right at home against Padres pitching, going 8-for-22 with four homers, 10 RBI and a 1.391 OPS in the six meetings.
San Diego has its own lineup threat in Fernando Tatis Jr., even if his season against Chicago wasn’t nearly as sharp. After a sluggish start to 2026, Tatis finished with a .289/.358/.470 slash line, an .828 OPS and 25 home runs. But against the Cubs, he was held to 6-for-26 with a .684 OPS, six strikeouts and no walks.
Pitching is where the contrast gets more complicated. The Padres’ rotation had its issues, but their bullpen is a serious problem for any opponent, and Mason Miller is the reason.
He saved 38 of San Diego’s 48 games and led all MLB relievers with 3.7 fWAR. He also topped the majors with 129 strikeouts, and his 1.67 ERA led the National League.
Chicago, though, gave Miller trouble. In three appearances against the Cubs, covering 2.2 innings, he allowed two earned runs on five hits and struck out only two of the 12 batters he faced.
The Cubs’ pitching group also looks different now than it did the last time these teams met. Trade deadline additions Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes are both strong candidates to start a game in the series, and how San Diego handles them will be one of the more interesting wrinkles in the matchup.
Defensively, the Cubs bring another major advantage. By the advanced numbers - OAA, DRS and FRV - they’ve been one of the most complete defensive teams in the league, and Crow-Armstrong stands out as the best defender in baseball and the likely Platinum Glove winner.
Behind him, Chicago’s infield of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman has given the club a locked-in look all season. Swanson’s glove was a big part of the Cubs’ playoff win over San Diego last year, too.
If there’s one area where the Padres hold the upper hand, it’s controlling the running game. San Diego led the league with 51 runners caught stealing, a number that could matter late if Chicago tries to manufacture extra bases.
The setting changes this time, with the series moving to Petco Park instead of Wrigley Field. The teams also arrive looking a little different: the Cubs finished 89-73, while the Padres went 91-71 and closed the season on a tear, going 18-6 in September. Chicago, meanwhile, went 11-13 over the same stretch and had trouble finishing tight games.
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