The Cubs are down to their last 10 games, and the margin for error has nearly disappeared.
What looked comfortable not long ago has turned into a real fight. Chicago was sitting 21 games over .500 on August 14, three games behind the Brewers and holding a six-game cushion for the top Wild Card.
Since then, a 12-17 stretch has dragged the Cubs into a much tighter race. They now lead Philadelphia by just a half-game, are 1 1/2 games ahead of San Diego and sit four games up on Arizona.
Even with the stumble, Chicago still controls a path to the top Wild Card spot. The schedule helps. So do the slates facing the teams chasing them.
Before the Cubs get to that finish line, they still have one more game against the Braves on Wednesday. The matchup looks more manageable now that they’ll see JR Ritchie instead of Chris Sale, and Shota Imanaga gives them a chance to finish the series on a strong note if he turns in another solid outing.
From there, the Cubs get a stretch that looks favorable on paper. The Reds come first, then the Marlins, then the Red Sox in Boston. Each one brings a different kind of challenge, but none of the three is a brutal draw.
Cincinnati has already been a good matchup for Chicago. The Cubs have won seven of their first 10 against the Reds, including two of three in their last series at Great American Ballpark.
Still, the opener will feature Chase Burns, who helped the Reds grab a win and take the series at Wrigley Field the last time these clubs met. Even with his 2.80 ERA and 3.18 FIP, this is still Chicago’s best chance to bank some wins.
Miami should be a step up only in the sense that the Cubs can’t take it lightly. The Marlins are likely to be out of the race by the time they reach Wrigley, and Sandy Alcantara may not be part of the picture.
Miami has gone 5-8 in September, with two of those losses coming against Craig Counsell’s club. Even so, the Cubs have seen how dangerous the Marlins can be.
Clay Holmes was tagged for eight runs in one of those games, a reminder that nothing is guaranteed.
Boston looks like the toughest opponent left for Chicago, even if the Red Sox may not have much to play for by then. They’re 5 1/2 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for the second Wild Card, which makes that spot feel like a near-lock unless something goes sideways. But the Red Sox still bring the most complete lineup the Cubs will face, and they’ve had one of the league’s top-five offenses since the second half.
The teams chasing Chicago don’t exactly have easy roads either. Philadelphia gets four games against the Mets before finishing with the Brewers and Rays, a brutal closing stretch even if those clubs have already settled their own races.
The Phillies also won’t have Jesus Luzardo. San Diego still has the Marlins ahead of it, but then comes the Dodgers and a series with Arizona that could matter if the Diamondbacks are still hanging around.
Arizona might be out before that, though, with three against the Yankees and three in Colorado still to come.
So while the Cubs have let the race tighten, they’re still in position to finish with the top Wild Card. A 7-3 finish would put them in a strong spot.
A 6-4 run would still do the job. A 90-72 record may not be what fans dreamed of when this team was rolling and Pete Crow-Armstrong was looking like a prospective MVP, but given the injuries and the late-season slide, it would still be a solid result and should be enough to secure home-field advantage in the first round.
In Other News...
Cubs Just Lost A Bullpen Option At The Worst Time
Shelby Millers comeback was always going to be measured more in caution than urgency, and the Cubs are taking that approach to its end. Manager Craig Counsell said the club has shut Miller down for the rest of the 2026 season while he finishes his rehab from UCL/flexor surgery that was performed last fall, a move that closes the book on any late-year bullpen help from a pitcher the team had been watching closely.
There had been some encouraging signs during his rehab assignment at Triple-A, but Chicago opted not to push it given Millers injury history. The expectation now is that hell be ready for Spring Training 2027, leaving the Cubs to wait another year to see whether he can factor into their bullpen plans the way they hoped. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Suddenly Have A Bullpen Problem At The Worst Time
The Cubs had the kind of night that can rattle a team in September, building a 3-0 lead before watching it slip away in a 6-3 loss to the Braves. Chicago still occupies first place in the NL Wild Card race with just ten games left, so the standings cushion is real enough, but games like this are a reminder of how quickly a late lead can vanish once the bullpen gets involved.
Jacob Webb was hit hard in relief, surrendering the go-ahead two-run homer that flipped the game, and Edward Cabreras first appearance out of the bullpen only added to the mess with two insurance runs allowed. For a club trying to bank wins and keep some separation in a crowded playoff chase, the timing could hardly be worse, because one shaky inning can change the tone of a stretch run in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Jameson Taillons Latest Elbow Setback Just Raised A Bigger Question
Jameson Taillons latest elbow issue has only added another layer to a season already defined by uncertainty, and it comes with a larger long-term wrinkle for the Cubs and anyone tracking his career. After being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation, the veteran right-hander said he will not return in 2026, and he is set to seek another medical opinion from Dr. Keith Meister as he looks for clarity on what comes next.
For Chicago, Taillons situation lands as a reminder of how quickly a rotation plan can unravel, especially for a pitcher who never quite found consistent footing this year. He was traded from the Cubs to the Blue Jays during the season, but the combination of injuries and shaky performance, including a high home run rate, has left a much bigger question hanging over his immediate future. [Read more 🡒]