The Cubs have done enough over the last weekend to calm the panic, but they haven’t done enough to make the National League Wild Card picture feel settled.
After a rough series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago bounced back by taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates. That puts the Cubs in a much better spot with the final two weeks of the regular season here, and FanGraphs now gives them nearly a 99% chance of reaching the playoffs.
So yes, the collapse talk that flared up after 2023 has mostly faded. But the path ahead still matters, and the Cubs’ magic number says there’s work left to do. With 12 games remaining, that number sits at 9.
If Chicago can lock up a spot before the final series of the season, Craig Counsell would have the flexibility to line up his rotation exactly the way he wants for the National League Wild Card series. The bigger issue, though, is where that series would be played.
Entering Monday, the Cubs and Phillies were tied for the No. 4 seed. Because Chicago owns the tiebreaker, that position would keep the Wild Card series at Wrigley Field. And after what the Cubs showed last October, there’s a real difference in playing a playoff series at home versus spending three straight games in Philadelphia.
The danger goes beyond the Phillies, though. Chicago is only 1.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres, and slipping to the No. 6 seed would send the Cubs on the road and into a matchup with either the Atlanta Braves or the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now, that would mean the Braves, who are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the National League’s second first-round bye.
The schedule gives the Cubs a chance to hold their ground. They face the Braves this week, then head to Cincinnati to play the Reds over the weekend. After that, they return to Wrigley Field for a series against the Miami Marlins before closing the regular season with a road weekend set against the Red Sox in Boston.
Philadelphia’s path is busy too. The Phillies begin a six-game road trip on Tuesday with series against the Washington Nationals and New York Mets, then finish at home with back-to-back series against the Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.
For Chicago, the goal is simple: stay even with Philadelphia this week, then try to separate next week. If not, the Cubs may still be in the playoffs - just not at Wrigley to start them.
In Other News...
Cubs Face A Dansby Swanson Question That Would Change Everything
Dansby Swanson is expected to be back with the Cubs next weekend, and his return should give the infield a welcome lift at a time when the team could use some steadiness behind a pitching staff that still has plenty to sort out. His presence matters because Chicago has leaned on defense all season, and Swanson remains one of the clearest answers on the roster when it comes to helping the group play cleaner baseball.
Still, the bigger question around the Cubs is not whether Swanson fits, but how much his importance limits any real change elsewhere. The pitching and bullpen issues remain the louder concern, with offseason plans already pointing toward upgrades on the mound and in the outfield, and the idea of moving a player as central as Swanson feels highly unlikely. For a club trying to balance present-day needs with longer-term improvement, his return only sharpens the debate about where the real fixes have to come from. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Have An October Bullpen Problem Fans Can't Ignore
The Cubs look like a club built to be in October, especially once Dansby Swanson is back in the mix and the lineup can lean on its position-player depth. But for all the reasons this team has stayed in the race, the pitching staff still hangs over the picture, and the bullpen has become the clearest source of unease as the calendar turns toward the postseason.
Daniel Palencias recent dip has only sharpened the concern, because the late innings are where a contender has to feel steady and the Cubs have not quite reached that point. Even if the rest of the roster keeps trending in the right direction, this is the part of the season where Chicago may have to sort through alternative relief options quickly if the current group does not firm up. [Read more 🡒]
Which Cubs Bats Really Belong In The Teams Long Term Core
The Cubs young core has been a source of optimism all summer, and the conversation around who might still be standing when this group reaches its peak is starting to sharpen. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at the center of it after a breakout trajectory that has him looking like the sort of player who can drive an offense for years, while Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch have given the lineup a more established middle-order feel. Add in Nico Hoerners consistency and the club has enough proven talent to make the long-term picture look a lot sturdier than it did not long ago.
What makes the discussion interesting is how many different timelines the Cubs are juggling at once. Alex Bregman brings a veteran layer to the mix, while Owen Ayers, Angel Cepeda, Ethan Conrad and Josiah Hartshorn represent the next wave of possibilities the organization is trying to sort through. If Crow-Armstrong keeps trending the way evaluators expect, and if the rest of the group continues to develop around him, the Cubs may soon have more than one player capable of turning award buzz into something that defines the rosters core for the next several seasons. [Read more 🡒]