The Cubs are close enough to the postseason that the math almost feels beside the point. Their magic number is down to one, and a win over the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night would lock up a playoff berth. Even if they stumble, there’s still another path: the Arizona Diamondbacks could lose to the Colorado Rockies and the Cubs would still get in.
That part is straightforward. The bigger question is what happens once October actually starts.
Before Sunday, the outlook on Chicago’s offense looked promising. With Pete Crow-Armstrong on track to be the National League MVP and Alex Bregman heating up in the second half, the Cubs had a lineup that seemed capable of carrying real weight in a playoff series.
Now Bregman’s status throws another wrinkle into that picture. He is recovering from multiple facial fractures and chose not to have surgery in hopes of returning during the playoffs.
Even so, there’s no clear timetable for when the swelling around his eye will go down. When it does, he’ll apparently try to get back on the field, but the uncertainty doesn’t stop there.
The bigger issue is how effective he can be if he returns with some of that damage still affecting him.
And the concern isn’t limited to the lineup.
The Athletic’s recent ranking of contender pitching staffs placed the Cubs at No. 10 out of 13 teams. That lines up with the lingering unease around the group, especially with the postseason approaching fast. Chicago still has one major bullpen question to answer before next Tuesday: who gets the ball in the highest-leverage spots?
Right now, the answer seems to shift from day to day. But Daniel Palencia’s recent stretch could be the most important clue.
He threw a perfect two-inning save against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday, punching out three of the six batters he faced. That outing was part of a run of four straight scoreless appearances.
If Palencia has truly rediscovered the dominant form he showed during the World Baseball Classic, that would be a big lift for a Cubs bullpen that badly needs one.
In Other News...
Cubs Could Turn To An Unexpected Playoff X-Factor Or Two
The Cubs are weighing a few less obvious names as they shape their playoff roster for the National League Division Series, a reminder that October often rewards flexibility as much as star power. Justin Steele has given the club a reason to think about left-handed help after showing promise in a rehab outing, while Justin Dean offers a different kind of value as a speed-first outfielder who has mostly filled a pinch-running role.
Gavin Hollowell is also in the conversation after working back from a shoulder injury and turning in strong rehab appearances. None of these choices is set in stone, but the possibility of carrying an extra arm or a specialist runner speaks to how the Cubs are trying to cover specific postseason needs, even if the final decisions are still to come. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Fans May Need To Watch Carter Hawkins This Offseason
The Red Sox spent the day locking in their baseball leadership, with manager Chad Tracy getting a three-year contract extension after stepping in on an interim basis in April and executive Craig Breslow having club options exercised for the 2029 and 2030 seasons. It was a clear sign Boston wants continuity at the top, and it also quietly sharpened the broader front-office market for anyone around the league keeping an eye on possible movement.
For Cubs fans, the ripple effect could be worth watching. Chicago executive Carter Hawkins is already being mentioned as the kind of name that can surface when front office openings start to appear, and this kind of shuffle only adds to the possibility that his offseason could become more interesting than expected. If the Red Sox are settling in, other clubs may soon be looking for the same sort of stability, and that is where Hawkins starts to enter the conversation. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Suddenly Face A Bigger Edward Cabrera Problem Than October
Edward Cabrera arrived as the kind of rotation upgrade the Cubs hoped would steady things down the stretch, but the blister issues that pushed him into the bullpen have only complicated the picture. Chicago made the move to try to keep him effective and available, yet the role change has not produced the immediate lift the club wanted from a pitcher it believed could help as a top starter.
Now the bigger question is not just how Cabrera fits into October plans, but whether he can even pitch his way onto the playoff roster in a meaningful way. A rough outing that saw him give up three runs in less than an inning only sharpened the concern, and with his numbers trending the wrong direction this season, the Cubs may be heading toward a longer offseason evaluation of what Cabrera is at this point and what he can still become. [Read more 🡒]