Michael Busch may not have the star power of a household name just yet, but if his 2025 season is any indication, he’s knocking loudly on that door - and the Cubs are all the better for it.
Originally a first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2019 (31st overall out of North Carolina), Busch found his way to Chicago in a trade that sent pitching prospect Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope to Los Angeles. Since then, the Cubs have gotten real value out of their new first baseman, and his trajectory is starting to look like one of the more savvy moves of the front office’s recent past.
Busch followed up a solid 2.8 bWAR (2.2 fWAR) campaign in 2024 with a breakout 2025 season, posting a 4.6 bWAR (3.5 fWAR) line. He slashed .261/.343/.523 at the plate, launched 34 home runs, drove in 90 runs, and added strong defense at first base. That kind of production - especially with the glove factored in - is the kind of well-rounded impact that winning teams are built on.
He even picked up some down-ballot MVP votes, finishing 16th in the league. That’s not nothing. It’s a nod from the broader baseball world that Busch isn’t just putting up empty numbers - he’s helping the Cubs win games.
Now, heading into 2026, the next step is consistency. If Busch can replicate or build on last year’s numbers, he’s not just a key contributor - he becomes a cornerstone.
Projections have him in the 25-homer, 75-RBI range, with around 60 walks and a .330 on-base percentage. That’s a useful player by any standard.
But given what he showed last season, there’s reason to believe he could exceed those marks.
One area to watch is his performance against left-handed pitching. That’s been a point of emphasis this offseason, and while Busch will likely get his share of at-bats regardless, the Cubs have right-handed options waiting in the wings if those matchups prove tricky. Spring Training could go a long way in determining how that platoon situation plays out.
Offensively, Busch brings value wherever he’s slotted in the order. Craig Counsell’s flexible, matchup-driven lineups have seen Busch hit leadoff at times, but he’s also been a fixture in the heart of the order - batting third, fourth, or fifth depending on the day.
What stands out is that he doesn’t change his approach based on where he hits. That kind of consistency is a manager’s dream.
Hitting third or fifth might ultimately be his sweet spot, especially when you consider the right-handed power surrounding him. With Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ in the mix, Busch can either set the table or drive in runs, depending on the lineup construction. And don’t forget Nico Hoerner - a contact-heavy, high-IQ hitter who fits beautifully in the two-hole, particularly against righties.
Counsell, known for his tactical creativity, will have options. But Busch is one of those players who gives a manager flexibility without sacrificing production. That’s a rare and valuable trait.
So what should Cubs fans expect? A solid .330 OBP, 25 homers, 75 RBIs - that’s the floor.
But if Busch continues trending the way he has, the ceiling is significantly higher. He’s not just holding down first base - he’s starting to own it.