The Cubs are once again at a familiar crossroads as the MLB Draft arrives this weekend, with the first round set for July 11. And once again, the big question is whether Jed Hoyer’s front office sticks with the college-bat blueprint that has worked so well since Matt Shaw was picked, or finally uses that premium slot to attack the organization’s obvious need for pitching.
That debate has only gotten louder because the system is tilted so heavily toward hitters. MLB Pipeline’s current top 10 Cubs prospects include just two pitchers: Jaxon Wiggins, who has dealt with injuries all year, and Kaleb Wing, who has flashed real upside with a 2.76 ERA at Single-A Myrtle Beach but still battles command.
On the position-player side, the farm has produced breakouts like Josiah Hartshorn and Pedro Ramirez, but no arm has made anything close to the same kind of leap. That stands out even more with the big-league rotation banged up and Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon all set to hit free agency next year.
Still, FanGraphs’ latest mock suggests the Cubs may keep leaning into what they know best. Eric Longenhagen sent Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins to Chicago at No. 23, and the profile fits the kind of player this front office has been willing to bet on.
Robbins was a Cape Cod League standout, much like Shaw, Cam Smith, and Ethan Conrad, and he posted a .936 OPS there with plenty of playing time. At Texas this season, he hit .333/.426/.696, though the strikeout rate - 22.9% - is a little high for a college bat.
Robbins is also in the range where Chicago could realistically land him. MLB has him ranked No. 29 overall, and he’d bring more thump to a system that could use it.
Nicknamed “Baseball Jesus,” he first really broke out at Seton Hall in 2025, when he put together one of the best seasons in school history by hitting .422/.537/.652 and winning a batting title. His power at Texas was just as loud: 24 homers, tied for third-most in program history, plus a real ability to punish fastballs.
In 2026, he hit heaters at a .454 clip with a .928 slugging percentage.
Even so, the fit isn’t perfect. If the Cubs go this route, they’d be choosing a promising bat over the area where the organization has the clearest need.
Shaw and Smith moved quickly through the minors, and expectations are high for Conrad now that he’s healthy and up to Myrtle Beach. That gives the front office some room to stay patient if it wants to, whether the name is Robbins or one of the other hitters they’ve been linked to, including Zion Rose, AJ Gracia, or Logan Hughes.
But it would still be tough not to wonder about the pitching if Chicago passes on a starter at No. 23.
Developing arms has been a long-running issue for the organization, dating back to the Theo Epstein era, and the best shot at landing a homegrown ace may be to take one in the first round. Kantrovitz has acknowledged the need to keep pitching in focus, even if that doesn’t mean forcing the issue.
There are pitchers on the board who could tempt them if they slide. Cameron Flukey, ranked No. 15, would be the big swing; his fastball has drawn Tyler Glasnow comparisons.
If he’s gone, the Cubs could still have options among a group that includes Ole Miss lefty Cade Townsend, whom FanSided mocked to Chicago, along with Mason Edwards and Logan Reddemann, both of whom have been mentioned by multiple outlets as fits. For now, though, all the speculation ends the moment the Cubs turn in the card.
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