The Cubs’ biggest October question might not be the lineup. It might be the arms.
With two weeks left, Chicago is still trying to sort out its playoff pitching plan, and the picture gets murkier the closer you look. The deadline goal was simple enough: avoid a repeat of last October, when the Cubs eventually ran short on effective pitching. They do have more options this time around, but more options does not automatically mean better ones.
That’s the tension hanging over the staff right now. The bullpen has looked shaky lately, and even the rotation has its own concerns with Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman. So there are still spots on the postseason pitching staff that feel very much unsettled.
For the National League Wild Card Series, the Cubs would be expected to carry 12 pitchers, just as they did last year. And if that’s the framework, the staff starts to take shape - though not without some uncomfortable edges.
Holmes looks locked in as the Game 1 starter. Since the trade deadline, he’s been the most reliable arm in the rotation, and that makes him the obvious choice to open the series.
After that, the decisions get trickier. Boyd, Gausman, and Shota Imanaga all come with questions, and Boyd appears to have the slightest edge for Game 2.
He’s been excellent the first time through a lineup, but the results change fast after that. If he gets the ball, the leash figures to be short, with the third inning sounding like the likely line where things could get tight.
Game 3 is even less settled. Gausman’s experience gives him a narrow lead over Imanaga for now, though that could flip if Gausman stumbles in his next turn and Imanaga keeps producing. That kind of swap would make sense based on how the next couple of weeks unfold.
The bullpen picture is where the concern really sharpens.
Jacob Webb, Daniel Palencia, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Ryan Rolison look like the four clear locks. If the Cubs are going to make a real run, that group has to be the backbone of it.
Caleb Thielbar also seems to have earned trust, even with the home-run splits attached to his profile. Shelby Miller is the swing arm, and he brings a fastball that has been sitting in the upper-90s during his minor-league rehab assignment. That kind of velocity feels important for October, even if he only gets one or two appearances with the club before the regular season ends.
The Cubs will also likely need multiple bulk options, which is how Edward Cabrera, Javier Assad, and David Peterson fit into the mix to start the playoffs. The Game 3 starter could also reshape the bullpen construction. If Gausman stays in that spot, it’s hard to picture the Cubs being comfortable using Imanaga out of the bullpen.
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