One of the Cubs’ first offseason calls will come down to a familiar mechanism: the qualifying offer. For Chicago, that decision could end up setting the stage for an Ian Happ reunion.
The qualifying offer is usually straightforward business for teams, a way to protect themselves with draft-pick compensation if a free agent walks. But every so often, it turns into something more interesting. The Cubs saw that play out last year with Shota Imanaga, who ultimately accepted the offer after getting an early read on his market.
Happ could be in that same lane this winter.
He did clear 20 homers this season and posted a wRC+ above 100 for the fourth straight year, but the late-season usage tells its own story. Over the final two months of the regular season, Happ was pushed into a platoon role, and that matters as Chicago weighs what his next chapter would actually look like.
The Cubs haven’t closed the door on bringing him back. Jed Hoyer left that possibility open when he spoke with reporters last week, and Happ is reportedly willing to consider another team-friendly discount to stay in Chicago.
If that reunion happens, the role has to be defined clearly. Happ no longer profiles as an everyday lineup lock, especially with his struggles against left-handed pitching. Chicago would need a platoon partner for him in the outfield, and the Cubs already have two possible options on the roster in Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez, both of whom have had success against southpaws.
There’s also a bigger picture here. The Cubs have outfield prospects moving up behind the current group, with Josiah Hartshorn and Kane Kepley both finishing the season at Double-A Knoxville. A 2027 Opening Day arrival would be too aggressive for either one, but both could be pushing for a spot by the end of next season.
That makes a short-term Happ return more appealing than a long-term commitment. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, this year’s qualifying offer is expected to land around $23.1 million.
For Happ, that would be a hefty one-year payday, and perhaps the ceiling on what the market will provide after a rough finish. For the Cubs, it may be worth it. With more than $100 million coming off the books, a one-year deal at that number could serve as a useful bridge while Chicago waits for Hartshorn and Kepley to get closer.
In that sense, the qualifying offer could work for both sides: Happ gets another season to rebuild his value, and the Cubs buy time without shutting the door on an eventual transition.
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