The Chicago Cubs have a winter problem that showed up earlier than anyone wanted: Seiya Suzuki is heading into free agency, and replacing him is going to be a whole lot harder than filling a normal corner-outfield spot.
Suzuki is one of four Cubs set to become free agents after the World Series, along with Ian Happ, Shota Imanaga and Kevin Gausman. But he stands apart from the rest of that group. With reports saying the Toronto Blue Jays plan to pursue him on the open market, the Cubs are staring at a decision that could shape the roster far beyond this offseason.
That reality hung over Suzuki after Chicago’s season-ending loss to the San Diego Padres late Wednesday night. Asked about his five years with the Cubs, he got candid about his own expectations.
"Looking back at the 5 years, I don't know if I was able to reach the expectations that people had (for me) or for myself."
He added, “My family, they love Chicago,” and then acknowledged the uncertainty that comes with free agency: “With free agency, that’s something new for me. There’s a lot of processes involved with that. I’m not sure what’s going to happen.”
Suzuki went 2-for-7 and scored the Cubs’ only run in their brief playoff stay. He was one of just four Chicago hitters to record a hit in the wild-card series, a small sample that did little to change the larger picture around his career in Chicago.
The numbers, when you step back, tell a pretty strong story. Suzuki signed a five-year, $85 million deal before the 2022 season after starring for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he was a five-time All-Star and hit .315 with 182 home runs across nine seasons. His first year in Chicago was shortened by injury, and he hit .262 with a .770 OPS, 14 home runs and 46 RBI.
After that, though, he settled in as one of the most reliable run producers in the league. Over five seasons as a Cub, he posted a career .823 OPS and launched 113 home runs, trailing only Kris Bryant (138) and Ernie Banks (136) for the most by a Cub through a player’s first five MLB seasons. He also put together a 2025 season with 32 homers, then followed it with 26 this year.
That production put him in a different tier. Suzuki finished with the third-best fWAR on the Cubs and ranked 19th in MLB at 4.6.
Even without individual awards, he built a profile that makes him one of the sport’s most consistent sluggers. The source also notes that he very much should have been an All-Star in 2025.
There’s more to his value now than just the bat, too. His defensive numbers took a big jump, with +6 Fielding Run Value, +4 Outs Above Average, +11 Defensive Runs Saved and +3 Arm Value. That kind of improvement has him in the mix for a Gold Glove.
Still, the Cubs may not be positioned to go all-out to keep him. According to The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma, it’s “unlikely that the Cubs will get into a bidding war for Suzuki’s services, let alone win one.”
The reason is pretty clear: Chicago has bigger holes to patch on the pitching side. The rotation and bullpen both need help, and the front office is expected to chase a front-line starter or a closer. The Cubs also enter 2027 ranked No. 10 in the league in total payroll.
That doesn’t make the Suzuki question any easier. Letting a hitter with this kind of track record walk would leave a major gap, especially with no obvious replacement ready to step in.
Matt Shaw could be used in right field next season, but that would come with a steep offensive drop. Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor are also free agents, and there’s no guarantee either returns or keeps producing at that level.
Chicago does have future corner-outfield options in No. 1 prospect Josiah Hartshorn and No. 3 prospect Ethan Conrad, but neither is expected in the majors before 2028.
So the Cubs are left with a narrow free-agent market in the outfield and one of the biggest names available in Suzuki. That’s what makes this such a pivotal call for the front office this winter.
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