The Cubs don’t need a miracle at the deadline. They need starting pitching, and they need it badly enough that a name like Robbie Ray starts to make real sense.
Chicago has held its own since the All-Star break and still sits in a strong spot in the NL Wild Card race, but the gap behind the Brewers in the NL Central is wide enough that October likely means a three-game Wild Card series. That puts even more pressure on the rotation, especially with Jameson Taillon still struggling. If Jed Hoyer is going to patch this thing up from the outside, the Giants look like one of the cleaner trade partners on the board.
Ray’s numbers on the surface are exactly the kind that can catch a contender’s eye. He has a 3.33 ERA in 20 appearances for San Francisco this season, which is his best mark since winning the Cy Young with the Blue Jays in 2021. He’s been even sharper lately, posting a 1.90 ERA and 3.39 FIP since May 31.
But the deeper dive is where the warning lights start flashing.
Ray’s underlying profile is messy this year, with an 11.6% walk rate against a 20.6% strikeout rate. That’s dragged his FIP to 4.59, and even the recent run of success comes with a 4.79 xFIP that suggests he may have gotten some help from fortune. He’s also nearing 35 and making $25 million this season, which makes him a much shakier bet than the box score alone would suggest.
Still, shaky doesn’t mean useless. For a Cubs staff in this much trouble, even league-average work from Ray would matter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale recently called him a "perfect fit" for the Cubs.
That may be a bit rich, but it does point to the real appeal here: price. Ray should be far cheaper than the top-end arms on the market, and if Chicago is willing to absorb most or all of the roughly $9 million he has left on his deal this year, the prospect cost should stay manageable.
One name that could headline a deal is Kevin Alcantara. The Cubs got him as the centerpiece of the Anthony Rizzo return, but he still hasn’t broken through in Chicago and is moving toward the end of his option years after the 2026 season. If the Cubs are going to move him, this is the kind of deadline where it makes sense to cash in.
For San Francisco, Alcantara would bring a right-handed bat into an outfield mix that could use one. Drew Gilbert has not shown any ability to hit lefties, and Jung Hoo Lee has had his own platoon issues in the past. Alcantara still needs work, but his defense would fit well in Oracle Park, and Harrison Bader’s injury issues and lack of production this year leave room for him to help right away, with more upside down the line.
The Giants would likely want more than one piece back if they’re giving up a starter, and that’s where Nazier Mule comes in. The Cubs’ fourth-round pick in 2022, Mule has been slowed mostly by injuries and spent much of his time in the lower minors.
Even so, he has shown big-time stuff before. His likeliest path to the majors may be in relief, but a fresh organization could help him get healthy and climb faster than expected.
Put it together, and the framework is easy to see: the Cubs get a veteran arm they desperately need, while the Giants land a big-league-ready outfielder and a high-upside pitching lottery ticket. With Ray carrying enough risk to keep the price down, it’s the kind of deal that could work for both sides.
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The latest prediction is the kind of idea that would not sit well in Queens, because it has the Cubs circling New York again as the 2026 trade deadline approaches. Axisas case leans on recent performance and contract situations, with Freddy Peralta standing out as a possible buy-low target and Huascar Brazoban also in the mix, while Chicagos search for another reliever piece remains part of the larger picture. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Fans Just Got Another Reason To Sweat The Trade Deadline
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Alcantara was recently sent back to Triple-A this week, while Ballesteros stayed put after the Cubs chose to call up James Triantos for his MLB debut instead of bringing him back to the majors. With starting pitching still the obvious area to watch, the front office has plenty to weigh as it sorts through possible upgrades, and the uncertainty around both young players is just another reason the deadline feels worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Lefty Bullpen Churn Just Took Another Turn
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With Pomeranz out of the picture, the bullpens lefty depth is down to Caleb Thielbar and Ryan Rolison for now, which keeps the front offices options open if it wants to add another southpaw. Chicago can always keep an eye on the market, but the bigger question over the next stretch may be how aggressively it balances that need against the rest of its pitching priorities. [Read more 🡒]