Jim Bowden’s latest top-40 free agent rankings are a reminder that this market is thin, especially for position players. Ian Happ checking in as the No. 8 non-pitcher says plenty about how little depth there is at the top. That kind of class can lead to mistakes, but it can also create room for players who do a lot of things well without getting much attention.
That brings us to Carson Kelly.
Kelly did not crack Bowden’s list, even though the Cubs have five players on it overall. That feels like a miss for a veteran catcher who has been consistently useful for years, including before his time in Chicago. Since the start of the 2019 season, Kelly has produced 11.2 fWAR, which ranks 12th among 55 qualified catchers.
The Cubs signed Kelly to a two-year deal worth $11.5 million guaranteed, and he delivered. His power dipped in 2026, but he still brought value at the plate and behind it.
In 2025, Kelly hit .249/.333/.428 with a 115 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR, 17 home runs, 50 RBI and a 10.7 BB%. In 2026, he posted a .258/.336/.376 line with a 103 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 10 home runs, 58 RBI and a 9.4 BB%.
Bowden’s list includes just two free-agent catchers, Tyler Stephenson and Ryan Jeffers, at Nos. 31 and 32. That ranking suggests age is carrying real weight here, because Kelly’s production stacks up right there with Stephenson’s, and Jeffers has arguably been the stronger performer since 2023.
Over the last two seasons, Kelly has hit .254/.335/.402 with a 109 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR, 27 home runs, 108 RBI and a 10.0 BB% across 846 plate appearances. Stephenson is at .237/.320/.411 with a 101 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, 28 home runs, 104 RBI and a 10.6 BB% in 810 plate appearances. Jeffers has the best offensive line of the group at .261/.355/.425 with a 120 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR, 23 home runs, 103 RBI and an 11.5 BB% in 832 plate appearances.
Kelly also separates himself with the glove. He has a 3 Fielding Run Value, while Stephenson sits at -12 and Jeffers at -10.
Age is the one thing working against him. Kelly is 32, compared with 30 for Stephenson and 29 for Jeffers. Bowden projects Stephenson for two years and $16 million, and Jeffers for two years and $15.5 million.
That doesn’t mean Kelly should be paid more than either one, but it does suggest his next deal could land in that neighborhood. He already proved he could hold up on a contract that paid him nearly $6 million per year, and in a weak market, that kind of floor seems realistic. If he chooses a one-year deal, he could even push higher.
For the Cubs, losing him would sting. Miguel Amaya is the current veteran starter, and Owen Ayers is the hope for 2027. A trade is possible, and Jed Hoyer could always surprise everyone by spending on a catcher, though that still doesn’t feel likely given the expectation that Chicago won’t go big on the position-player side.
For now, the safest assumption is that the Cubs may have to replace a catcher who has been quietly very good. Carson Kelly looks underrated, and he might be harder to replace than people think.
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