September has not exactly been gentle with the Chicago Cubs, and the latest stretch has only sharpened the concern around this team. A series win over the Miami Marlins offered a brief lift, but it was sandwiched around a rough 2-5 run against the Milwaukee Brewers that effectively knocked the Cubs out of the NL Central chase.
The bigger issue is the same one that has followed them for a while: the pitching still looks shaky enough to make an October run feel fragile. The rotation and bullpen have not given the kind of support a contender usually needs, especially with the National League field loaded with strong arms.
The Brewers didn’t just beat the Cubs; they also took the season series 4-9, and that clearly didn’t help the mood. Since winning the Crosstown Classic in mid-August, Chicago has lost or tied five of its last six series.
That said, the Cubs have also shown they can handle quality opponents. They swept the Dodgers earlier in August to win that season series, although that came during Los Angeles’ strange post-deadline slump.
They also hammered the Phillies this year, though all seven of those meetings came before Philadelphia fired manager Rob Thomson in late April. Since then, the Phillies have gone 73-45 under Don Mattingly.
If there’s a reason to hold onto belief in Chicago, it starts with the position players. The Cubs are near the top of the league in fWAR from that group, and it’s showing up in both a second-half offense that has led the way and a defense that has been historic. Nearly every hitter on the roster has been hot since the All-Star break, with Michael Busch and Carson Kelly the only exceptions, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has put together what the source describes as an otherworldly stretch in an MVP-level season.
But the arms are not matching that standard. Since the deadline, the Cubs rank 25th in rotation ERA at 4.90 and 28th in reliever fWAR at -0.7.
The message is pretty clear: good offense and strong defense can carry a lot, but pitching is what decides October, and the Cubs may simply not have enough of it. The Brewers have spent the last few weeks making that gap obvious.
The remaining schedule does at least tilt a little softer, though not by much. Home series against the Pirates and Marlins, along with a road trip to face the Reds, should help. Still, six of the Cubs’ final 15 games come against the Braves and Red Sox, which gives them a chance to show they can handle top-level competition when it matters - and also leaves room for more damage in the standings.
In Other News...
Cubs Just Made A Pitching Move That Changes Bullpen Questions
The Cubs pitching mix got a notable shuffle this week with Edward Cabrera coming off the 15-day injured list and joining the bullpen for the stretch run. Chicago is making the move with October in mind, giving the right-hander a shorter workload role after his return while trying to preserve enough depth for the final push.
Trent Thornton, meanwhile, goes on the 15-day injured list with a left ankle sprain, and his absence is expected to last until at least the end of the regular season. For a bullpen that has already had to manage moving parts, the timing matters, since Cabreras arrival helps answer one question even as Thorntons setback opens another. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Face A Matt Shaw Decision That Could Reshape Their Offseason
The Cubs spent the early part of the offseason trying to balance an obvious need for pitching with the kind of roster flexibility that can keep a contender afloat, and Matt Shaw sits right in the middle of that calculation. Trade speculation around Shaw has picked up since Chicago signed Alex Bregman, but the front office still appears to view him as a possible starting outfielder next season, with the chance to step into a larger role if Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ moves on in free agency.
Shaws appeal is easy to understand: he can fill different spots, he comes with team control, and he gives the Cubs a cost-controlled option on a roster that will likely need help elsewhere. That also makes him exactly the type of player other clubs would want in a trade, especially if Chicago decides the cleanest path to fixing the staff runs through moving a young bat. For now, though, the Cubs seem likely to weigh whether Shaws value is higher as part of the lineup or as currency for the pitching they still need. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Bullpen Problems Could Push Jed Hoyer Into Unfamiliar Territory
The Cubs spent the offseason trying to fortify the back of the bullpen, bringing in Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey and Hoby Milner, but the relief corps has still been a problem as injuries and uneven performance have piled up. For a team trying to stay relevant in the National League race, late-inning pitching remains one of the clearest soft spots, and it has become the kind of issue that can shape the entire winter plan if it does not improve.
Jed Hoyer has usually had to make bullpen fixes with shorter-term, lower-cost moves, but this situation could force Chicago into a different lane. San Diego left-hander Adrian Morejon has surfaced as a possible high-end target, a sign that the Cubs may need to think bigger if they want real stability in the late innings, even with the financial and strategic hurdles that come with shopping at that level. [Read more 🡒]