The Cubs arrive at Busch Stadium on Tuesday with momentum and a chance to keep stacking series wins in the second half. After a 7-3 win on Monday night, Chicago is going after its third series win since the break, and the matchup comes against a Cardinals club that has dropped eight of its last 10.
There’s also some bigger-picture math in play. St.
Louis still owns a 4-3 edge in the season series, and the Cubs only get one more crack at the Cardinals after this one. A sweep would go a long way.
Colin Rea gets the ball for Chicago against St. Louis right-hander Michael McGreevy, and the setup points toward the long ball being a factor.
Craig Counsell is mixing things up a bit with the lineup. Dansby Swanson gets the day off, Ian Happ slides into the DH spot, and Nico Hoerner stays in the mix after a 4-hit, 4-RBI night.
Hoerner is batting sixth, while Pedro Ramirez remains at second base and keeps his spot after extending his hitting streak to seven games. During that run, he’s posted a 1.081 OPS, making him awfully hard to remove right now.
Michael Conforto is in left field with Happ at DH, and Carson Kelly, the former Cardinals farmhand, is behind the plate.
The top of the order has some real numbers behind it against McGreevy, even if the sample is small. Happ, Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki all carry OPS marks above 1.000 against the right-hander. McGreevy has already allowed 15 home runs this season, which only adds to the appeal of Chicago’s power bats in this matchup.
On the other side, the Cardinals are sending out a lineup led by J.J. Wetherholt at second and Jordan Walker in right field.
Walker remains the biggest threat in the group, coming in with a .861 OPS in July. Jimmy Crooks has also been producing, with an .833 OPS this month, though that has come in just 30 plate appearances and comes with a 36.7 K rate.
Rea’s recent work has been a little shakier than his season line suggests. In his last start against the Tigers, he gave up four runs on six hits and two home runs, pushing his total to 17 homers allowed on the year.
He’s now surrendered a home run in five of his last seven outings. Even so, Chicago can live with an early solo shot if the offense keeps backing him up, and a 4.85 ERA still plays as a perfectly usable mark for a fifth starter.
McGreevy, meanwhile, took the loss in his last outing against the Diamondbacks after allowing four runs on seven hits and giving up his 15th homer of the year. He enters with a 3.07 ERA and a pitch mix that mirrors Rea’s in some ways, leaning on the fastball while using his sinker against right-handed hitters and change-up against lefties.
The Cardinals have gotten length from McGreevy lately, with the right-hander going at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. Still, St. Louis used only two pitchers on Monday, so the bullpen should be available if this one turns into an early test.
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