The Cubs added four new arms at the trade deadline, and that move may end up solving more than one problem in the bullpen. It gave Chicago more breathing room with its top relievers, and with Hoby Milner and Edward Cabrera expected back from the injured list soon, the group could get crowded in a hurry. Phil Maton and Daniel Palencia are also looming on the IL, which only adds to the roster juggling ahead.
That kind of squeeze means even established bullpen pieces are going to be under pressure. Javier Assad is one optionable arm in the mix, but getting the best group in Chicago at the same time will still require plenty of maneuvering between the 40-man and 26-man rosters.
Right now, the clearest name to watch is Caleb Thielbar.
The 39-year-old left-hander has been scuffling badly, and his recent usage suggests the Cubs may already be testing how much they still need him. On the season, Thielbar has struck out 28.5% of batters, but the rest of the line has been rough: a 5.30 ERA, a 5.36 FIP, and left-handed hitters doing damage to the tune of an .843 OPS. That’s how you get to a year that has been worth -0.5 fWAR, even with the swing-and-miss still showing up.
The deeper you dig, the worse it looks. Since the start of July, Thielbar has a 7.30 ERA and 5.93 FIP.
His xFIP sits at 2.63, but that number is being propped up by one simple fact: he hasn’t walked anyone in that stretch. The problem is what has happened when he has thrown strikes.
He’s given up five home runs over his last 12.1 innings, and the ground-ball protection that used to help him has disappeared.
Chicago has also leaned on him hard since the trade deadline, using him in three straight games from August 5-7. Those appearances produced a 32.40 ERA, and while that number obviously comes with a small sample warning, it also makes the point: the Cubs are trying to squeeze whatever value they can out of him before roster decisions force their hand.
None of this makes Thielbar a lock to be cut loose, but the signs are getting harder to ignore. Even with the league’s best defense behind him, he’s been getting hit too often in the zone. The stuff hasn’t vanished, which is why the strikeout rate still pops, but the margin for error is gone.
Unless he turns this around quickly, Chicago may already be looking at the end of his run with the club.
In Other News...
Cubs Outfield Shakeup Could Lead To A Huge Randy Arozarena Move
The Cubs outfield could look very different by the time next season opens, and the possibility of a major rearrangement is already drawing attention. With Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Tyrone Taylor all expected to reach free agency this offseason, Chicago may have a real need to add an established bat and a proven presence in the corners, which is why Randy Arozarena has surfaced as a name to watch.
Arozarena, now with the Mariners, brings the kind of postseason pedigree and star recognition that can change the conversation around an offseason plan. Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report sees Chicago as a possible landing spot, and the fit is easy enough to understand even before the front office decides how aggressive it wants to be in rebuilding the outfield. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Still Have A Matt Shaw Problem At The Worst Time
Matt Shaws absence has already stretched well past the point the Cubs first hoped for when he went down with a left-hand sprain in late June, and Craig Counsell said the rookie remains sidelined while his recovery continues on a slower timeline than expected. Chicago has found ways to keep moving without him, getting useful work from players like Pedro Ramrez and Tyrone Taylor, but Shaws situation still matters because he was supposed to be part of the infield picture once he got back.
For now, the hold-up is not a new problem so much as a lingering one, with Shaw still unable to advance the way the club would like as he works through the injury. The Cubs have not described any setback, but they also are not close to a return, which leaves the team waiting on a player whose timetable has become one of the quieter concerns on the roster at a time when every healthy bat can help. [Read more 🡒]
Clay Holmes Was Already Shaping The Cubs Before This Trade
Clay Holmes arrives in Chicago with the kind of late-season expectation that comes with any deadline addition, but his influence on the Cubs has already been felt long before the trade became official. Before joining the team, Holmes spent part of the offseason helping Ben Brown build out a sinker, a pitch that became part of Browns strong run before injury interrupted it and gave the Cubs another look at how much value Holmes can add beyond his own innings.
Now the Cubs are expecting that same presence to matter in the second half, with Holmes set to debut against the Royals and immediately factor into a pitching staff looking for stability and impact. The trade gives Chicago another arm for a critical stretch, but it also underscores something the organization already knew: Holmes was not starting from scratch here, and the fit has been building in the background for months. [Read more 🡒]