The Cubs are playing their best ball of the season, and still the NL Central keeps staring them down.
Since June 19, Chicago has been the top offensive team in baseball, piling up a 121 wRC+, 300 RBI, 312 runs scored, a .346 on-base percentage and 14.6 fWAR - all best in MLB over that stretch. At 74-54, the Cubs have built a six-game lead in the National League Wild Card race and carry a 98.7% playoff chance, according to Fangraphs. They’ve also won six of their last eight series and taken nine straight road series.
Even with all that, Fangraphs gives them only a 12.1% shot to win the division.
That’s because Milwaukee keeps setting the pace. The Brewers own MLB’s best record at 78-49 and enter Thursday with a 4.5-game edge over the Cubs. They’ve been the class of the NL Central this decade, taking four of the last six division crowns, and they’ve already handled Chicago 4-2 in the season series after sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley Field in May.
The two clubs still have seven games left against each other, and those matchups loom huge. The Cubs will host a four-game series beginning Aug. 31, then the Brewers will return the favor with three games in Milwaukee starting Sept.
- It’s starting to look like those seven head-to-heads will settle the race.
Before Chicago gets to that first showdown, there’s work to do. The Cubs have 34 regular-season games left, and their path is not exactly soft.
Tankathon has their remaining schedule ranked third-toughest at a combined .529 winning percentage. Milwaukee’s slate is eighth-hardest at .515.
The immediate stretch gives Chicago a chance to chip away. The Cubs go to Kansas City for three, then to Washington for three, then come home for three against St.
Louis and three against the White Sox. After that comes a six-game road trip - three in Seattle and three in Arizona - before a home series with the Reds.
Milwaukee’s road is hardly gentle either. The Brewers are in Seattle through Thursday, then host the Braves, head to New York for the Mets, and finish with a three-game home set against the Rangers before coming to Wrigley.
For the Cubs, the goal is simple: stay within striking distance. Being three to five games back when the Brewers arrive in Chicago would keep the division chase very much alive. In a perfect world, Chicago would rip off nine straight, but a more realistic target is winning four of six on the West Coast and then sweeping the Reds at home.
There are reasons to believe that kind of run is possible. Seattle sits third in an underwhelming AL West and is 3-7 over its last 10, a stretch that includes Milwaukee’s stunning 22-0 win Tuesday night.
Arizona has also been a favorable matchup for the Cubs; Chicago swept the Diamondbacks in May during one of its two 10-game winning streaks, and the Cubs have won seven of their last 10 meetings with Arizona dating back to 2025. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has fallen to last place in the NL Central and is the only team in the division with a negative run differential at minus-88.
Chicago’s biggest edge right now is star power playing at peak form.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has only strengthened his NL MVP case. In the Crosstown Series against the White Sox, he totaled 15 bases and hit both a leadoff homer and a walk-off homer on Monday. That also locked in his place as a 30-homer, 30-steal player, making him the first Cub in franchise history with back-to-back 30/30 seasons and the first player to reach the 30-30 club in 2026.
Alex Bregman has given the lineup another major boost. Over his last 30 games, he’s hitting .303/.375/.549 with seven homers and 22 RBI. His second-half surge has been one of the biggest reasons for Chicago’s success since the break, and he went 5-for-13 in the Crosstown Classic, capped by a walk-off single on Tuesday night.
Nico Hoerner has also flipped the script after entering the break hitting .233. In his last 30 games, he’s slashing .353/.376/.471 while continuing to deliver Gold Glove-level defense. That defensive value matters even more now, with Dansby Swanson likely out for the rest of the regular season because of a Grade 2 oblique strain.
The pitching staff will have plenty to say about whether the Cubs can close the gap, too. The bullpen has been sharp, posting a 3.01 ERA since July 17, good for sixth in baseball, while the rotation has been more middle-of-the-pack at 3.97, 15th in MLB.
Shota Imanaga has been the anchor, working to a 2.55 ERA in 35.1 innings since the break. David Peterson has also stepped up with a 2.20 ERA in 28.2 innings and could be asked to shoulder more after Edward Cabrera landed on the 15-day IL again with a finger blister.
If Chicago is going to make a real dent in Milwaukee’s lead, it will need strong outings from Matthew Boyd, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, especially in keeping the ball in the park. The offense has carried the Cubs for two months. The next few weeks will show whether the rest of the roster can keep the division race from slipping away.
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