The Cubs spent the deadline chasing help for the rotation, and while the headline names in their haul have already drawn the most attention, Braxton Garrett may end up being the move that tells the bigger story.
Chicago paid a real price to get him. The deal with Miami cost a two-prospect package led by first baseman Jonathon Long, which is no small thing even if it doesn’t match what the Cubs surrendered to land Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor from the Mets. Garrett arrived as the kind of project the front office clearly believed in, but not the kind of arm expected to walk in and save the day right away.
That matters because he still hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors for the Cubs, and there are only weeks left in the regular season. But there’s no reason to treat that as a warning sign just yet.
Garrett was always the longer-term play. He has spent this season working back from elbow surgery he underwent before the 2025 season, an injury that cost him all of last year and continued to affect him this year.
Miami brought him back for two brief major-league outings in May, but he got hit hard and was sent back down quickly.
Since the trade, the early returns have been uneven. His first Triple-A Iowa appearance was rough, with six walks in just two innings.
Since then, though, the command has settled down. Over his last four starts, Garrett has been working roughly 75-pitch outings and has walked 7.8 percent of the hitters he’s faced, a clear step forward from the 12.1 percent walk rate he carried earlier in the season.
The strikeout stuff has been there too. Garrett has fanned 27.3 percent of opponents over those last four appearances, which gives the Cubs something real to build on.
That fits with the track record he had before the surgery, when he posted a 3.86 ERA and a 3.66 FIP across the previous three seasons. The raw ingredients still look like those of a quality starter.
But the results still haven’t caught up. Garrett has a 5.79 ERA over those four starts with Iowa, and the biggest problem has been the long ball.
He has allowed five homers in his last 18 2/3 innings, which is too much for any pitcher trying to push his way back toward the majors. The league environment can explain some of that, but not all of it.
With the Triple-A season in its second-to-last week, Garrett should get two more starts before the year ends. Those outings will matter.
The Cubs can control him through arbitration in 2027, and with so many pitchers headed for free agency, he could become an important part of next year’s rotation. That becomes even more relevant if bringing Clay Holmes back ends up costing as much as some rumors indicate.
If Garrett can keep the ball in the yard over these final two starts and make the results line up better with the underlying numbers, the Cubs will have a much stronger case for believing in him heading into Spring Training. If the home run problems keep piling up, though, the left-hander could be non-tendered this offseason without ever pitching in the majors for Chicago. In that case, these next two starts may decide whether the Garrett trade was a smart swing or a miss.
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