The Cubs may have only 12 games left, but the bigger battle right now is for where October begins. Fangraphs still pegs Chicago at a 98.9 percent chance to reach the postseason, yet the race for the top Wild Card spot has tightened enough to make every series feel like it carries extra weight.
Chicago and Philadelphia are tied for the No. 1 Wild Card position, which would mean home-field advantage for the three-game set.
The Cubs still own the tiebreaker after winning the season series over the Phillies, so if the season ended today, Wrigley Field would host the round. But the margin is thin, and the Cubs could slip back to No. 2 in a matter of hours.
That possibility makes this week’s matchup with the 88-win Braves even more interesting. Atlanta is a tougher assignment than the Cubs’ Wild Card competition, especially with Philadelphia lined up against the 70-win Nationals. Still, the Cubs got a small break in the way the Braves’ pitching schedule lined up.
Atlanta is missing its top arms from the probables for this three-game set. Tyler Mahle (3.91 ERA), Grant Holmes (3.49 ERA), and Chris Sale (2.18 ERA) all pitched in the Braves’ previous series against the Phillies, which leaves Chicago with a more favorable path on the mound than the name value of the opponent might suggest.
The opener on Monday night features Reynaldo López, who is starting just his 13th game of the season. He owns a 4.13 ERA across 76.1 innings and comes in after one of his roughest outings, a 4.2-inning start against Tampa Bay on September 9 in which he allowed 6 earned runs and walked three.
That gives David Peterson a real chance to set the tone for Chicago. Peterson has been steady for most of his time in Chicago, and his profile fits this defense well as a ground-ball pitcher.
He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts, though the walks have crept up lately. He has issued at least three free passes in three straight outings, and if he trims that back, the Cubs should like their odds in the opener.
Tuesday brings Kevin Gausman against Martin Pérez. Pérez has been effective with a 3.08 ERA and is coming off one of his best starts, a seven-inning shutout against Tampa. Even so, the 35-year-old left-hander can be vulnerable early, and his 8-9 record points to that risk.
Gausman has been up and down lately, with two rough outings in his last three. He gave up 5 earned runs to the Reds on August 29, then was tagged for 6 earned runs in 4.0 innings by the Brewers this past week, with multiple homers in both games.
But he also sandwiched those starts around a dominant performance against Milwaukee, when he worked 7.0 innings of one-run ball, allowed five hits, and struck out nine. For the Cubs, that’s the version of Gausman that matters most.
The finale is still listed as TBD for Atlanta, and that leaves open the possibility that Chicago sees one of the Braves’ more dangerous arms. Chris Sale would normally be in line there, though Atlanta could choose to give him rest before the postseason. If Sale does get the ball, the last game becomes the toughest test of the series by far.
That makes the first two nights crucial for Craig Counsell’s club. Shota Imanaga is set to finish the series, and while he struggled at the end of August, he has steadied himself over his last two starts.
In those outings, he allowed only eight hits and 3 earned runs while striking out eight. The home run ball remains a concern, especially against Atlanta’s lineup, but this version of Imanaga gives the Cubs a better feel heading into the finale.
In Other News...
Kevin Alcntara May Have Just Reopened His Cubs Roster Path
Late in the 2026 season, Kevin Alcntara has started getting work at first base for Triple-A Iowa, a move that could give the Cubs another reason to keep him on the radar heading toward 2027. The 22-year-old outfielder has long been viewed as one of the organizations more interesting young talents, but adding a new position changes the conversation around him, especially for a club that values flexibility and needs to keep finding ways to fit right-handed depth onto the roster.
For Chicago, the timing matters. Alcntara is out of minor-league options, so the Cubs cant simply stash him in Iowa again if he shows enough to belong in the majors, and first base is an area where the team may want a capable bench piece behind Michael Busch. With some upcoming free-agent departures potentially thinning the mix, Alcntaras versatility could be more than a side note now, it might be the clearest path back to Wrigley when roster decisions get serious. [Read more 🡒]
Cubs Suddenly Have A Matthew Boyd Problem At The Worst Time
The Cubs are running out of time to sort out their October rotation, and the picture behind Clay Holmes is looking far less stable than it seemed a few weeks ago. Holmes still appears to be the leading candidate to start Game 1, but Chicago had hoped the rest of its playoff plan would settle more cleanly around Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman as dependable follow-up options.
Instead, both pitchers have raised concerns at the same moment. Gausman has struggled to find his footing since arriving in Chicago, and Boyd has faded over his recent outings, leaving the Cubs with a late-season decision that carries more weight than anyone would like. With the postseason approaching, the question is not just who gets the ball after Holmes, but whether the Cubs can trust the rotation order they thought they were building. [Read more 🡒]
Craig Counsell Just Raised The Stakes For Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera is back with the club after being reinstated from the injured list and shifting into the bullpen, though the right-hander did not get into the recent series against the Pirates. Even so, his return has already become a talking point because Craig Counsell framed him as more than just another arm in relief, pointing to the possibility of a bigger postseason job if the Cubs need it.
Counsells comparison to Roki Sasakis impact out of the Dodgers bullpen last October gives the idea some real weight, but Cabrera also arrives with questions attached. His recent metrics have been uneven, with a high home run rate and pitch effectiveness trending in the wrong direction, which leaves Chicago balancing the upside of his stuff against the risk that comes with it. [Read more 🡒]